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NBA and NHL and College football odds recap for Saturday, October 24, 2026: what the lines got right and wrong
Saturday's college football schedule broke the betting board. Thirteen underdogs won outright across 44 games with lines. The closing odds gave all 13 together about a 1 in 7,585,886 chance. Three Big Ten favorites lost on the same afternoon, and the biggest moneyline upset came from a 17.5% team in the Sun Belt.
College football
Start with the moneyline, which is a bet on who wins the game, with no points involved. Louisiana-Monroe closed at +455 at Troy, which works out to a 17.3% chance once the book's cut is taken out. ULM won 21-14. Troy had opened as a 17.5-point favorite, and the line move (the shift in the point spread between when betting opens and when the game starts) went 4 points toward ULM, to 13.5. That move turned out right. ULM covered by 20.5, meaning it beat the spread by that much.
The Big Ten had a rough day for favorites. Illinois, a +320 underdog with a 22.8% chance, beat Oregon 21-10 and covered by 21.5. Minnesota at +235 (28.6%) beat Iowa 13-10. Wisconsin at +105 (46.8%) beat USC 24-7. Elsewhere, Cincinnati (+330, 22.3%) beat Texas Tech 37-24, USM (+360, 20.9%) beat UL 35-31, West Virginia (+285, 24.9%) won 24-20 at TCU, Syracuse (+275, 25.6%) won 31-30 at North Carolina, and UCF (+245, 27.8%) beat BYU 39-31.
The biggest covers did not all come from upsets. Hawaii, a closing 3-point favorite, beat NIU 56-21 and covered by 32. Boston College won 49-27 as a +200 underdog at Georgia Tech, covering by 28.5.
Line moves were a coin flip on the day. When the spread moved, the side it moved toward went 20-20. The sharpest misses were in the Virginia Tech-Clemson game, where the line went 4.5 points toward Clemson. Clemson opened as a 1.5-point underdog and closed as a 3-point favorite, and Virginia Tech then won 20-16. In the Hawaii-NIU game, the line moved 4.5 toward NIU, from +7.5 to +3, and Hawaii won by 35 anyway. TCU (moved 3 toward) and Georgia Tech (moved 2 toward) also lost outright. Moves on the total did better, landing on the right side 21-15.
The total is the combined points the market expects from both teams, and bettors take the over or the under. Two games broke it badly. San Diego State and Colorado State scored 105 points, 49-56, against a total of 57.5, an over by 47.5. Rice and FAU scored 100 against 55.5, over by 44.5. In both games the total had moved down before kickoff. Overall, overs and unders split 22-22.
NHL
Underdogs won 4 of 12 games. Toronto, at +124 with a 42.8% chance, won 7-2 at Edmonton. That result beat the puck line, hockey's version of a spread set at 1.5 goals, by 6.5. Columbus (+114, 44.9%) beat Vegas 2-1. Calgary (+110, 45.7%) beat Detroit 4-1 and covered by 4.5. Anaheim (+102, 47.4%) won 5-4 in Philadelphia.
Favorites went 8-4 straight up but only 5-7 on the puck line. Pittsburgh, Washington and Utah all won by exactly one goal, and the puck line asks the favorite to win by two. Overs and unders split 6-6. Rangers-Ottawa missed by the most, finishing with 11 goals against a 6.5 total. The only total that moved, in Vegas-Columbus, went up from 5.5 to 6.5. That game finished with 3 goals, an under by 3.5.
NBA
Favorites won 6 of 8 games but covered only 2, and home teams went 1-7 against the spread. Cleveland, Philadelphia, Denver and Phoenix all won without covering. Phoenix's line moved 3 points in its favor, to 9.5, and the Suns won by 9, missing by half a point. San Antonio and Houston were the only favorites to cover, and the lines had moved toward both of them.
Charlotte was the biggest upset. The Hornets closed at +150, a 38.4% chance, and beat Miami 115-110. The Miami-Charlotte line moved a point toward the Heat, which was wrong. Washington (+105, 46.8%) won 124-120 at Chicago, even though the line moved 3 points toward the Bulls and flipped them from underdog to favorite. When the spread moved, the side it moved toward went 2-3.
Two totals were way off. New Orleans and Denver combined for 276 points against 239.5, an over by 36.5. Golden State and Phoenix scored 253 against 221.5, an over by 31.5, after that total had moved down 3. Moves on the total were right 4-4.
The long shots
The college football underdogs are the story here. Ten of the 13 had less than a one-in-three chance by the closing moneyline, and ULM had the smallest at 17.3%. Together they came to about 1 in 7.6 million. For scale, and purely as a hypothetical, picking the winner of all 44 college games would have been about a 1 in 833,966,921,784 shot.
Hockey's four underdog winners, as a hypothetical parlay (several bets combined, all of which have to win), would have paid +1,933, about a 1 in 24 chance. Getting every NHL winner right came out to about 1 in 1,969. The NBA's two underdog winners together would have paid +412, about 1 in 6. Picking all eight NBA winners would have paid +2,139, about a 1 in 31 chance.
By the numbers
College football favorites went 31-13 straight up but only 23-21 against the spread.
Home teams in college football went 28-16 against the spread, while NBA home teams went 1-7.
NHL favorites won 8 of 12 games but covered the puck line only 5 times.
Two college games went over the total by more than 44 points, and both totals had moved down before kickoff.
Clemson flipped from underdog to favorite before kickoff and then lost to Virginia Tech, which had a 43.7% chance.
Sources
Context beyond our own data comes from:
NBA: every game against the line
Favorites 6-2 straight up, 2-6 against the spread. Overs-unders 5-3. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA 110 @ CHA 115 | CHA +3.5 → +4.5 CHA covered | 231.5 → 227.5 Under (225) | CHA +150 38.4% chance, upset |
| BKN 121 @ CLE 125 | CLE -11.5 BKN covered | 232.5 → 228.5 Over (246) | CLE -500 80% chance |
| MIL 116 @ PHI 127 | PHI -12.5 MIL covered | 230.5 → 234.5 Over (243) | PHI -650 83.2% chance |
| WSH 124 @ CHI 120 | CHI +1.5 → -1.5 WSH covered | 243.5 → 244.5 Under (244) | WSH +105 46.8% chance, upset |
| SA 122 @ DAL 106 | DAL +11.5 → +14.5 SA covered | 230.5 → 229.5 Under (228) | SA -900 86.3% chance |
| HOU 121 @ ATL 114 | ATL -1.5 → +1.5 HOU covered | 230.5 → 227.5 Over (235) | HOU -112 50.4% chance |
| NO 135 @ DEN 141 | DEN -11.5 NO covered | 237.5 → 239.5 Over (276) | DEN -485 79.6% chance |
| GS 122 @ PHX 131 | PHX -6.5 → -9.5 GS covered | 224.5 → 221.5 Over (253) | PHX -410 77.2% chance |
NHL: every game against the line
Favorites 8-4 straight up, 5-7 against the puck line. Overs-unders 6-6. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Puck line | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANA 5 @ PHI 4 | PHI -1.5 ANA covered | 5.5 Over (9) | ANA +102 47.4% chance, upset |
| LA 1 @ NJ 3 | NJ -1.5 NJ covered | 5.5 Under (4) | NJ -185 62.2% chance |
| SJ 4 @ BOS 6 | BOS -1.5 BOS covered | 6.5 Over (10) | BOS -192 63.1% chance |
| NYR 4 @ OTT 7 | OTT -1.5 OTT covered | 6.5 Over (11) | OTT -125 53.2% chance |
| NSH 2 @ PIT 3 | PIT -1.5 NSH covered | 6.5 Under (5) | PIT -125 53.2% chance |
| BUF 3 @ WSH 4 | WSH -1.5 BUF covered | 6.5 Over (7) | WSH -120 52.2% chance |
| VGK 1 @ CBJ 2 | CBJ +1.5 CBJ covered | 5.5 → 6.5 Under (3) | CBJ +114 44.9% chance, upset |
| CAR 4 @ STL 0 | STL +1.5 CAR covered | 6.5 Under (4) | CAR -155 58.3% chance |
| TOR 7 @ EDM 2 | EDM -1.5 TOR covered | 6.5 Over (9) | TOR +124 42.8% chance, upset |
| TB 4 @ UTA 5 | UTA -1.5 TB covered | 6.5 Over (9) | UTA -148 57.2% chance |
| DET 1 @ CGY 4 | CGY +1.5 CGY covered | 5.5 Under (5) | CGY +110 45.7% chance, upset |
| MIN 5 @ SEA 1 | SEA +1.5 MIN covered | 6.5 Under (6) | MIN -192 63.1% chance |
College football: every game against the line
Favorites 31-13 straight up, 23-21 against the spread. Overs-unders 22-22. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| PITT 23 @ MIA 52 | MIA -23.5 → -20.5 MIA covered | 53.5 → 50.5 Over (75) | MIA -1650 90.8% chance |
| BYU 31 @ UCF 39 | UCF +9.5 → +7.5 UCF covered | 45.5 → 43.5 Over (70) | UCF +245 27.8% chance, upset |
| IU 13 @ MICH 6 | MICH +6.5 → +7.5 MICH covered | 52.5 → 43.5 Under (19) | IU -298 71.8% chance |
| MISS 27 @ TEX 34 | TEX -9.5 → -3 TEX covered | 54.5 Over (61) | TEX -170 60.4% chance |
| TTU 24 @ CIN 37 | CIN +11.5 → +10.5 CIN covered | 56.5 → 57.5 Over (61) | CIN +330 22.3% chance, upset |
| MSU 10 @ UCLA 28 | UCLA -13.5 → -16.5 UCLA covered | 47.5 → 43.5 Under (38) | UCLA -850 85.8% chance |
| HOU 13 @ UTAH 21 | UTAH -6.5 UTAH covered | 50.5 → 57.5 Under (34) | UTAH -230 66.9% chance |
| TENN 24 @ SC 27 | SC +2.5 → -2.5 SC covered | 51.5 → 50.5 Over (51) | SC -135 55.1% chance |
| VAN 17 @ UK 34 | UK -9.5 UK covered | 52.5 → 51.5 Under (51) | UK -440 78.2% chance |
| TA&M 20 @ ALA 31 | ALA -2.5 → -13.5 TA&M covered | 54.5 → 49.5 Over (51) | ALA -600 82.2% chance |
| IOWA 10 @ MINN 13 | MINN +4.5 → +7.5 MINN covered | 42.5 → 40.5 Under (23) | MINN +235 28.6% chance, upset |
| USC 7 @ WIS 24 | WIS +1.5 WIS covered | 52.5 → 50.5 Under (31) | WIS +105 46.8% chance, upset |
| LSU 38 @ AUB 17 | AUB +6.5 → +7 LSU covered | 50.5 → 51.5 Over (55) | LSU -285 71% chance |
| BOIS 31 @ WSU 10 | WSU +14 → +14.5 BOIS covered | 50.5 → 52.5 Under (41) | BOIS -625 82.7% chance |
| CAL 20 @ SMU 59 | SMU -16.5 → -18.5 SMU covered | 52.5 → 55.5 Over (79) | SMU -1050 87.6% chance |
| RUTG 14 @ NU 42 | NU -16.5 → -15.5 NU covered | 58.5 Under (56) | NU -750 84.7% chance |
| ISU 3 @ ARIZ 39 | ARIZ -10 → -11.5 ARIZ covered | 50.5 → 51.5 Under (42) | ARIZ -375 75.7% chance |
| WVU 24 @ TCU 20 | TCU -7 → -10 WVU covered | 58.5 Under (44) | WVU +285 24.9% chance, upset |
| RICE 49 @ FAU 51 | FAU -10.5 → -9.5 RICE covered | 58.5 → 55.5 Over (100) | FAU -340 74.1% chance |
| WMU 38 @ TOL 45 | TOL -1.5 → -2.5 TOL covered | 44.5 → 48.5 Over (83) | TOL -142 56.3% chance |
| BAY 24 @ KU 25 | KU +1.5 → -1.5 BAY covered | 54.5 Under (49) | KU -118 51.7% chance |
| AKR 20 @ KENT 35 | KENT -3.5 → -3 KENT covered | 43.5 → 48.5 Over (55) | KENT -148 57.2% chance |
| M-OH 28 @ CMU 27 | CMU -1.5 → +3.5 CMU covered | 42.5 → 41.5 Over (55) | M-OH -166 60% chance |
| ORE 10 @ ILL 21 | ILL +12.5 → +10.5 ILL covered | 51.5 → 49.5 Under (31) | ILL +320 22.8% chance, upset |
| OU 23 @ MSST 15 | MSST +1.5 OU covered | 46.5 → 49.5 Under (38) | OU -122 52.6% chance |
| BC 49 @ GT 27 | GT -4.5 → -6.5 BC covered | 49.5 → 50.5 Over (76) | BC +200 31.9% chance, upset |
| UNT 49 @ NAVY 39 | NAVY +1.5 → +3 UNT covered | 61.5 → 60.5 Over (88) | UNT -148 57.2% chance |
| HAW 56 @ NIU 21 | NIU +7.5 → +3 HAW covered | 45.5 → 48.5 Over (77) | HAW -180 61.6% chance |
| SAC 17 @ BALL 34 | BALL -9.5 → -14.5 BALL covered | 49.5 → 51.5 Under (51) | BALL -600 82.2% chance |
| BGSU 24 @ BUFF 31 | BUFF -4.5 → -3 BUFF covered | 43.5 → 44.5 Over (55) | BUFF -155 58.3% chance |
| KSU 17 @ ASU 28 | ASU +3 → +1.5 ASU covered | 56.5 → 51.5 Under (45) | ASU -102 48.3% chance, upset |
| EMU 20 @ OHIO 24 | OHIO -9.5 → -11.5 EMU covered | 49.5 → 48.5 Under (44) | OHIO -485 79.6% chance |
| ULM 21 @ TROY 14 | TROY -17.5 → -13.5 ULM covered | 50.5 Under (35) | ULM +455 17.3% chance, upset |
| SJSU 13 @ NEV 28 | NEV -5.5 → -6 NEV covered | 45.5 → 46.5 Under (41) | NEV -230 66.9% chance |
| UL 31 @ USM 35 | USM +10.5 → +11.5 USM covered | 52.5 Over (66) | USM +360 20.9% chance, upset |
| ODU 0 @ LT 26 | LT -8.5 → -13.5 LT covered | 44.5 → 43.5 Under (26) | LT -550 81.2% chance |
| SDSU 49 @ CSU 56 | CSU +3 → +1.5 CSU covered | 59.5 → 57.5 Over (105) | CSU -110 50% chance |
| COLO 24 @ OKST 57 | OKST -14.5 → -12.5 OKST covered | 55.5 Over (81) | OKST -550 81.2% chance |
| VT 20 @ CLEM 16 | CLEM +1.5 → -3 VT covered | 49.5 → 50.5 Under (36) | VT +120 43.7% chance, upset |
| GAST 32 @ ARST 38 | ARST +1.5 → +2.5 ARST covered | 55.5 → 58.5 Over (70) | ARST +114 44.9% chance, upset |
| SYR 31 @ UNC 30 | UNC -9.5 → -7.5 SYR covered | 44.5 → 49.5 Over (61) | SYR +275 25.6% chance, upset |
| USU 17 @ TXST 20 | TXST -9.5 → -14.5 USU covered | 58.5 Under (37) | TXST -625 82.7% chance |
| UTSA 42 @ TULN 19 | TULN +4 → +3 UTSA covered | 50.5 → 52.5 Over (61) | UTSA -148 57.2% chance |
| NDSU 16 @ UNM 21 | UNM -3.5 → -4.5 UNM covered | 46.5 → 39.5 Under (37) | UNM -192 63.1% chance |
Lines are DraftKings' opening and closing numbers. Chance is the closing moneyline with the sportsbook's cut removed. Past results don't predict future ones.
Our picks for this day and how they did