We rebuilt the board for every NFL week from 2018 to 2025 using only games played before that week, then settled each bet at its real past price. Losing weeks are included.
| What you bet | Bets | Profit per $100 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Every bet on the board | 13,088 | -$3.70 | the sportsbook's cut |
| Top pick each week, 2018-2021 | 4 seasons | +$28.00 | |
| Top pick each week, 2022-2025 | 4 seasons | +$19.20 | |
| Top pick each week, 2018-2025 | 173 | +$23.50 | ± $10.60, one standard error |
| Top 5 each week, 2018-2025 | 865 | +$4.30 | ± $4.00 |
| Top pick each week, 2026 weeks 1-6 (live) | 6 | 2 won, 4 lost | too few to judge |
Betting everything loses about the sportsbook's cut. The edge, where there is one, is in the very top of the board. Eight seasons is encouraging but not proof, and past prices may be closing lines, which are harder to beat.
We've flagged 136 edges since we started logging prices. Of the 113 whose price changed before kickoff, the price we showed beat the closing price 77.0% of the time (87 of 113). The closing price is the market's best guess, so beating it more than half the time is the clearest early sign of a real edge.
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