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NFL and NBA and NHL and College football odds recap for Thursday, October 22, 2026: what the lines got right and wrong
Seven underdogs won on Thursday's 12-game NHL slate. The market's closing lines gave all seven winning together about a 1 in 340 chance. A moneyline bet is a straight bet on who wins. On a day with games in four sports, hockey favorites had the hardest time.
Football had its own surprise. App State, a 12.5-point underdog, beat James Madison outright. In the NBA, Denver and Oklahoma City scored 56.5 points fewer than the total, which is the market's line for both teams' combined points.
NHL
Favorites went 5-7 straight up and 4-8 against the puck line. The puck line is hockey's version of a point spread, usually set at a goal and a half. A team "covers" when its result beats that number. Home teams went 9-3 against it.
The biggest upset by moneyline was Calgary beating Minnesota 2-1. At +180, the Flames had a 34.3% chance. Seattle was next, beating Utah 5-3 at +160 with a 36.9% chance. San Jose won 6-2 at Ottawa at +114 (44.9%), Edmonton beat Carolina 6-5 at +114 (44.9%), and St. Louis beat Vegas 6-2 at +105 (46.8%).
Two more underdog wins came in near coin-flip games: Toronto over the Rangers 5-4 and Pittsburgh over Florida 4-0. In both, the closing line gave the winner a 49.6% chance. In four games, the favorite flipped between the opening and closing line. In three of them (Toronto, Pittsburgh and Edmonton), the team that ended up as the underdog won.
The biggest covers were San Jose and St. Louis, each beating the puck line by 5.5 goals. Boston, which shut out Nashville 6-0, covered by 4.5. Winnipeg covered with a half goal to spare in a 3-2 loss at Dallas. Detroit covered by 1.5 in a 5-2 win at Vancouver.
A line move is the change in a betting line between when it opens and when the game starts. On Thursday's NHL puck lines, the side the line moved toward went 0-3. Toronto, the Islanders and Edmonton all opened at -1.5 and closed at +1.5, meaning the line moved 3 goals toward the road team each time. All three home teams covered. The Islanders did it in a 3-2 loss to Los Angeles, covering by a half goal.
Overs and unders split 6-6. Carolina and Edmonton combined for 11 goals against a 6.5 total, over by 4.5. That was the biggest miss of the night. Minnesota and Calgary's total was the one total that moved, from 5.5 up to 6.5. Only three goals were scored, under by 3.5, so the move was wrong.
College football
Favorites went 2-1 straight up but 1-2 against the spread. When the spread moved, the side it moved toward went 0-2.
The upset was App State 34, James Madison 31. At +370, the closing line gave App State a 20.4% chance, the lowest of any winner on Thursday. The spread moved from 10.5 to 12.5 toward James Madison, but App State covered by 15.5. The 65 points beat the 56.5 total by 8.5.
East Carolina and Memphis scored 75 points against a total of 55.5, over by 19.5. That was the biggest football total miss of the day. The total had moved up from 53.5, which was the right way. The spread moved the other way: it went from Memphis -9.5 to -10.5, and East Carolina covered by 3.5 in a 41-34 loss.
Liberty gave the day's biggest football cover, winning 34-6 at Kennesaw State and beating the 8.5-point spread by 19.5. That total moved up from 47.5 to 50.5, but the game finished at 40, under by 10.5.
NBA
Favorites went 2-0 straight up and against the spread, and both games went under. Oklahoma City beat Denver 96-84, a total of 180 points against a closing total of 236.5. That's under by 56.5, the biggest miss of the day in any sport. The total had moved up from 231.5. The Thunder covered the 7.5-point spread by 4.5 and had a 74.1% chance at -340.
Philadelphia beat Cleveland 114-106. The spread moved 2 points toward Cleveland, from -4.5 to -2.5, and the 76ers covered by 5.5. The total moved up from 233.5 to 237.5, but the game finished at 220, under by 17.5. Totals that moved went 0-2 in the NBA.
NFL
Thursday's NFL game went the way the line moves pointed. Chicago beat New England 30-24. The spread moved from Bears -1.5 to -3, and Chicago covered by 3. The total moved from 47.5 to 50.5, and the game finished at 54, over by 3.5. At -155, the Bears had a 58.3% chance to win.
The long shots
The most unlikely single result was App State, at 20.4%. As a group, the NHL underdogs stood out more. Seven of them won, with combined odds of about 1 in 340. As a hypothetical parlay, which is one bet linking several picks that all have to win, those seven would have paid +25,251. Picking every winner of all 12 NHL games had about a 1 in 4,607 chance.
College football was closer to normal. Picking all three winners had about a 1 in 8 chance and would have paid +633 as a hypothetical parlay, with App State making up most of the long odds.
Our own daily top 10 picks went 3-2 on the day.
By the numbers
56.5: how many points Denver and Oklahoma City fell short of their total.
7: NHL underdogs who won, against 5 favorites.
0-3: the record of the side the NHL puck line moved toward.
20.4%: App State's chance at +370, the lowest of any winner on Thursday.
19.5: how far East Carolina and Memphis went over their total. Liberty also covered by 19.5.
I couldn't use any outside reporting for this story because the search tool hit its limit before returning any results. There's no news, injury reports or fan reaction in it. Every number comes from the lines and scores you gave me.
Sources
Context beyond our own data comes from:
NFL: every game against the line
Favorites 1-0 straight up, 1-0 against the spread. Overs-unders 1-0. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE 24 @ CHI 30 | CHI -1.5 → -3 CHI covered | 47.5 → 50.5 Over (54) | CHI -155 58.3% chance |
NBA: every game against the line
Favorites 2-0 straight up, 2-0 against the spread. Overs-unders 0-2. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE 106 @ PHI 114 | PHI -4.5 → -2.5 PHI covered | 233.5 → 237.5 Under (220) | PHI -135 55.1% chance |
| DEN 84 @ OKC 96 | OKC -7.5 OKC covered | 231.5 → 236.5 Under (180) | OKC -340 74.1% chance |
NHL: every game against the line
Favorites 5-7 straight up, 4-8 against the puck line. Overs-unders 6-6. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Puck line | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| NSH 0 @ BOS 6 | BOS -1.5 BOS covered | 6.5 Under (6) | BOS -148 57.2% chance |
| NYR 4 @ TOR 5 | TOR -1.5 → +1.5 TOR covered | 6.5 Over (9) | TOR -108 49.6% chance, upset |
| SJ 6 @ OTT 2 | OTT -1.5 SJ covered | 6.5 Over (8) | SJ +114 44.9% chance, upset |
| ANA 1 @ NJ 4 | NJ -1.5 NJ covered | 6.5 Under (5) | NJ -218 65.7% chance |
| FLA 0 @ PIT 4 | PIT -1.5 PIT covered | 6.5 Under (4) | PIT -108 49.6% chance, upset |
| LA 3 @ NYI 2 | NYI -1.5 → +1.5 NYI covered | 5.5 Under (5) | LA -115 51.1% chance |
| VGK 2 @ STL 6 | STL +1.5 STL covered | 5.5 Over (8) | STL +105 46.8% chance, upset |
| WPG 2 @ DAL 3 | DAL -1.5 WPG covered | 5.5 Under (5) | DAL -198 63.7% chance |
| MIN 1 @ CGY 2 | CGY +1.5 CGY covered | 5.5 → 6.5 Under (3) | CGY +180 34.3% chance, upset |
| CAR 5 @ EDM 6 | EDM -1.5 → +1.5 EDM covered | 6.5 Over (11) | EDM +114 44.9% chance, upset |
| UTA 3 @ SEA 5 | SEA +1.5 SEA covered | 6.5 Over (8) | SEA +160 36.9% chance, upset |
| DET 5 @ VAN 2 | VAN +1.5 DET covered | 6.5 Over (7) | DET -170 60.4% chance |
College football: every game against the line
Favorites 2-1 straight up, 1-2 against the spread. Overs-unders 2-1. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| JMU 31 @ APP 34 | APP +10.5 → +12.5 APP covered | 56.5 Over (65) | APP +370 20.4% chance, upset |
| LIB 34 @ KENN 6 | KENN +8.5 LIB covered | 47.5 → 50.5 Under (40) | LIB -380 76% chance |
| ECU 34 @ MEM 41 | MEM -9.5 → -10.5 ECU covered | 53.5 → 55.5 Over (75) | MEM -425 77.7% chance |
Lines are DraftKings' opening and closing numbers. Chance is the closing moneyline with the sportsbook's cut removed. Past results don't predict future ones.
Our picks for this day and how they did