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Best bets for Thursday, October 22, 2026

Published October 21, 2026

Thursday's board leans hard in one direction. All ten of our top picks are unders on player stats, and every one pays better than even money. Seven of them come from two NBA games: one that tips at 7:00 PM ET and Nuggets at Thunder at 9:30 PM ET. NBA.com's game page lists that one at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The other three picks come from the NFL's Thursday night game at 8:15 PM ET. As always, expected profit is what a bet should average over many tries at that price. Any single night can go the other way.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under 3.5 rebounds

The top pick is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander grabbing three rebounds or fewer against Denver. The best price is +126 at FanDuel, so a $100 bet that wins returns $126 in profit. The estimate rests on 1903 look-alike games, the deepest sample on today's list. Our model puts expected profit at +$15.11 per $100. A plus price means the book thinks the under is less likely than not. Our look-alike games put its chances higher than this price suggests. Gilgeous-Alexander is known for scoring, not rebounding, so the market may be leaning on his star status more than the history supports.

Donovan Mitchell under 2.5 threes made

Next up is Donovan Mitchell making two three-pointers or fewer in the 7:00 PM game. The price is +132 at FanDuel, with expected profit of +$13.90 per $100 from 413 look-alike games. That's a smaller sample than the top pick, so there's more room for error in the estimate. Unders on players known for shooting threes can end up underpriced, because books know casual bettors like to bet on the shooter getting hot. Mitchell is also on the list at number five, under 4.5 assists at +126.

A.J. Brown under 4.5 receptions

On the football side, A.J. Brown catching four passes or fewer in the 8:15 PM ET game ranks third. BetOnline.ag has the best price at +128. Expected profit is +$13.75 per $100, based on 648 look-alike games. Catches for star receivers swing a lot from week to week depending on coverage and game flow, and the over is the popular side. In games like this one, our look-alikes say the under has paid often enough to beat this price.

The rest of the top ten keeps the same theme. Denver's Jamal Murray shows up twice from DraftKings: under 3.5 rebounds at +118 (+$13.65) and under 6.5 assists at +110 (+$11.98). Celtics forward Jaylen Brown under 5.5 rebounds is +106 at FanDuel (+$11.90). Thunder wing Jalen Williams also appears twice: under 0.5 threes at +173 on DraftKings (+$11.70), which means he'd have to miss every three he takes, and under 4.5 rebounds at +102 on FanDuel (+$11.67). Luther Burden III under 4.5 receptions at +112 on FanDuel (+$11.68) is the second NFL pick. Keep in mind that several of these picks come from the same two NBA games. If one game turns into a high-scoring, high-volume night, several unders could miss together.

The top 10 bets on our NFL, NBA board for Thursday, October 22, 2026, ranked by expected profit per $100 after the sportsbook's cut. Each one is priced from how look-alike past games turned out (similar line, home or away, rest), at the best price we found across up to 11 sportsbooks.

Profit per $100 is the expected long-run average, not a promise: even the best edges lose often. Our full track record shows how the method has done over eight NFL seasons.