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NBA and NHL and College football odds recap for Friday, November 6, 2026: what the lines got right and wrong
Friday's best betting story came from the one NBA game where the market changed its mind. Before tipoff, the moneyline (the straight bet on who wins) swung away from the Cleveland Cavaliers. They opened as the favorite against Philadelphia and closed as the underdog at +128, which the market priced as a 42.1% chance. Cleveland won 119-95. The AP's recap made the night about LeBron James, playing in Cleveland for the first time since choosing Philadelphia in the offseason. The Cavaliers held him to a quiet night and won "an NBA Cup group stage game." That was the only upset in a nine-game NBA slate where favorites otherwise went 8-1.
NBA
Cleveland's win was a blowout as well as an upset. The Cavaliers were 2.5-point underdogs and covered by 26.5 points. Covering means beating the point spread, the head start the oddsmakers give the weaker team. The AP also reported that Cleveland played without center Jarrett Allen, who has a bruised right knee. The total, meaning the line on combined points that bettors play over or under, closed at 232.5. The game finished at 214, 18.5 points under.
Two other teams won by about as much. Boston beat Charlotte 119-80 as a 10.5-point favorite, covering by 28.5, the biggest cover of the night. Oklahoma City won 128-97 at Memphis and covered a 4.5-point spread by 26.5.
The most surprising number came from Washington at Atlanta. The total closed at 228.5, and the teams combined for 271. That was 42.5 points over, the biggest miss of the day in any sport. Atlanta won 139-132 at -324, a 73.4% chance, but didn't cover. The spread moved from Atlanta -6.5 at the open to -8.5 at the close, so a 7-point win would have covered the opening number and fell 1.5 short of the closing one. San Antonio was the night's biggest favorite at -1340 (89.4%) and beat Sacramento 124-109. The Kings still covered a 17.5-point spread by 2.5.
It was a bad night for line moves. A line move is the change in the number between the opening line and the closing line. When the NBA spread moved, the team it moved toward went just 2-6 against the spread. The biggest move came in Toronto at Milwaukee: the line shrank 4 points, from Milwaukee +7.5 to +3.5. Toronto won 121-107 and covered by 10.5. The only spread moves that worked were Boston's and Oklahoma City's. Totals moves were close to a coin flip at 4-5. In Portland at the Lakers, the total fell 7 points, from 238.5 to 231.5, and the game went over by 10.5 anyway at 124-118. In Utah at Dallas, the total rose from 223.5 to 226.5 and the game finished at 212, 14.5 under. Overs and unders split 4-5, and home teams went 4-5 against the spread.
College football
The college upset was Illinois over Nebraska. The Illini were +164 underdogs, a 36.3% chance, and won 24-13. The spread had moved toward them, from +6 to +4.5, and they covered by 15.5. The total went up from 50.5 to 52.5, but the game produced 37 points, 15.5 under.
Virginia Tech at SMU was the opposite. With the total at 57.5, the teams scored 79, 21.5 over. SMU won 51-28 and covered by 17, even though the line had moved 1.5 points toward the Hokies. New Mexico had the biggest cover, beating Nevada 31-3 as a 10.5-point favorite to cover by 17.5. The spread had moved 2 points toward Nevada.
The market read TCU at Arizona well. The spread dropped from Arizona -9.5 to -6, and TCU covered by 5 in a 29-28 loss. The total rose from 44.5 to 46.5, and the game went over by 10.5. South Florida at East Carolina was the other game where the favorite flipped. East Carolina opened as a 1.5-point underdog, closed as a 1.5-point favorite, and won 20-17 to cover by exactly 1.5. The total dropped 6 points to 39.5, and the game stayed under at 37. College spread moves went 3-2 and totals moves went 3-1, a better night than the NBA had.
NHL
Anaheim had the only hockey upset, winning 5-3 over Calgary as a +124 underdog (42.8%). Hockey uses a puck line instead of a spread, almost always 1.5 goals. Calgary was laying the 1.5, so the Ducks covered by 3.5. The two home favorites won by exactly three goals each, so both covered by 1.5. Buffalo beat Columbus 5-2, and Minnesota beat San Jose 4-1. All three totals were set at 6.5, and overs won 2-1.
The long shots
By the market's numbers, Illinois was the least likely winner of the day at 36.3%. Cleveland (42.1%) and Anaheim (42.8%) were the other two underdogs to win outright. None of them was a true long shot. Each was closer to a coin flip than a miracle.
Parlays give a better sense of scale. A parlay is a single bet that ties several picks together and pays only if every one hits. These are hypothetical examples, not bets anyone placed. Picking the moneyline winner of all nine NBA games was about a 1-in-53 chance, and as one parlay it would have paid +3,605. All five college winners was about 1 in 15, paying +1,145. All three NHL winners was about 1 in 5, paying +371. The Atlanta total may have been the strangest result of all: being off by 42.5 points is a far bigger miss than any upset on the board.
By the numbers
42.5: points over the total in Washington at Atlanta, the biggest totals miss of the day.
2-6: how NBA teams did against the spread when the line moved toward them.
28.5: points Boston covered by against Charlotte, the biggest cover of the day.
89.4%: San Antonio's chance as the night's biggest favorite. The Spurs won but didn't cover.
3: underdogs who won outright across all three leagues. Illinois, at 36.3%, was the least likely.
NBA: every game against the line
Favorites 8-1 straight up, 6-3 against the spread. Overs-unders 4-5. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| WSH 132 @ ATL 139 | ATL -6.5 → -8.5 WSH covered | 230.5 → 228.5 Over (271) | ATL -324 73.4% chance |
| BOS 119 @ CHA 80 | CHA +8.5 → +10.5 BOS covered | 210.5 → 209.5 Under (199) | BOS -424 77.7% chance |
| PHI 95 @ CLE 119 | CLE +2.5 CLE covered | 233.5 → 232.5 Under (214) | CLE +128 42.1% chance, upset |
| UTAH 100 @ DAL 112 | DAL -7.5 → -6.5 DAL covered | 223.5 → 226.5 Under (212) | DAL -257 69.1% chance |
| OKC 128 @ MEM 97 | MEM +3.5 → +4.5 OKC covered | 225.5 → 224.5 Over (225) | OKC -174 61% chance |
| TOR 121 @ MIL 107 | MIL +7.5 → +3.5 TOR covered | 231.5 → 228.5 Under (228) | TOR -162 59.3% chance |
| MIN 115 @ NO 109 | NO +5.5 → +3.5 MIN covered | 229.5 → 230.5 Under (224) | MIN -166 60% chance |
| POR 118 @ LAL 124 | LAL -4.5 → -3.5 LAL covered | 238.5 → 231.5 Over (242) | LAL -154 58.2% chance |
| SA 124 @ SAC 109 | SAC +15.5 → +17.5 SAC covered | 228.5 → 231.5 Over (233) | SA -1340 89.4% chance |
NHL: every game against the line
Favorites 2-1 straight up, 2-1 against the puck line. Overs-unders 2-1. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Puck line | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ 2 @ BUF 5 | BUF -1.5 BUF covered | 6.5 Over (7) | BUF -180 61.6% chance |
| SJ 1 @ MIN 4 | MIN -1.5 MIN covered | 6.5 Under (5) | MIN -285 71% chance |
| ANA 5 @ CGY 3 | CGY -1.5 ANA covered | 6.5 Over (8) | ANA +124 42.8% chance, upset |
College football: every game against the line
Favorites 4-1 straight up, 3-2 against the spread. Overs-unders 2-3. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCU 28 @ ARIZ 29 | ARIZ -9.5 → -6 TCU covered | 44.5 → 46.5 Over (57) | ARIZ -250 68.5% chance |
| VT 28 @ SMU 51 | SMU -7.5 → -6 SMU covered | 57.5 Over (79) | SMU -218 65.7% chance |
| USF 17 @ ECU 20 | ECU +1.5 → -1.5 ECU covered | 45.5 → 39.5 Under (37) | ECU -115 51.1% chance |
| NEB 13 @ ILL 24 | ILL +6 → +4.5 ILL covered | 50.5 → 52.5 Under (37) | ILL +164 36.3% chance, upset |
| UNM 31 @ NEV 3 | NEV +12.5 → +10.5 UNM covered | 43.5 → 39.5 Under (34) | UNM -425 77.7% chance |
Lines are DraftKings' opening and closing numbers. Chance is the closing moneyline with the sportsbook's cut removed. Past results don't predict future ones.
Our picks for this day and how they did