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Best bets for Friday, November 6, 2026

Published November 5, 2026

Friday's slate is mostly about underdogs. Seven college football and NHL games fill the board, and the three best values by our model all back the team the market expects to lose. Our model compares each line with past games that looked similar: a comparable spread, the same home or away setup and similar rest. It then blends those results with the betting market's price. Keep in mind that expected profit is a long-run average across many bets like these. It isn't a forecast for any single night.

Illinois to beat Nebraska at +172 (Bovada)

The top pick is Illinois to win outright at home against Nebraska at 8:00 PM ET. Bovada has the best price at +172, so a $100 bet that wins returns $172 in profit. The bet rates at +$7.20 expected profit per $100, based on 1,262 look-alike games. Here's why the price may be off. Over that large sample, home teams in a spot like Illinois's have won a little more often than this price suggests. Our guess is that bettors are leaning toward Nebraska's side of the matchup, which pushes the Illinois number a bit too high.

Nevada to beat New Mexico at +375 (BetRivers)

Next up is a bigger long shot. Nevada hosts New Mexico at 9:00 PM ET, and BetRivers pays +375 if Nevada wins. Expected profit is +$5.60 per $100 across 517 look-alike games. That's a smaller sample than our top pick, so there's more uncertainty. At a price this long, Nevada will lose more often than it wins. The case for the bet is that home underdogs in similar spots have won just often enough to make +375 worth more than the market thinks.

San Jose +1.5 at Minnesota at -110 (Fanatics)

In the NHL, our third pick takes the Sharks on the puck line at Minnesota at 8:00 PM ET. San Jose +1.5 wins if the Sharks win outright or lose by exactly one goal. Fanatics has it at -110, and the bet rates at +$5.48 per $100 over 1,587 look-alike games. Lots of hockey games are decided by one goal, and the model thinks this price undervalues that chance for a road underdog in this setup.

The rest of the list is more modest. TCU to win at Arizona at +260 on Bovada (+$4.38) is close to the top three, and the 10:15 PM ET kickoff gives late-night fans something to watch. Illinois +4.5 at -108 on DraftKings (+$2.08) offers a gentler way to back the same view as our top pick. On the ice, three unders of 6 goals at +105 on BetMGM make the board: Anaheim at Calgary (+$1.50), San Jose at Minnesota (+$1.10) and Columbus at Buffalo (+$0.58). Each is backed by 7,380 look-alike games. The college football overs, South Florida at East Carolina over 39.5 (+$0.90) and New Mexico at Nevada over 38.5 (+$0.79), have the thinnest edges and the smallest samples on the board. Treat them as leans rather than strong plays. Like every bet here, these carry real risk, and no pick should be read as a sure thing.

The top 10 bets on our college football, NHL board for Friday, November 6, 2026, ranked by expected profit per $100 after the sportsbook's cut. Each one is priced from how look-alike past games turned out (similar line, home or away, rest), at the best price we found across up to 11 sportsbooks.

Profit per $100 is the expected long-run average, not a promise: even the best edges lose often. Our full track record shows how the method has done over eight NFL seasons.