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NFL and NBA and NHL and College football odds recap for Thursday, November 5, 2026: what the lines got right and wrong
The biggest number on Thursday was 14 points: that's how far the NFL line on Jaguars at Ravens moved between open and kickoff. Baltimore opened as a 4.5-point favorite. By the close, Jacksonville was favored by 9.5. The market's late read turned out to be right. Jacksonville won 33-10, and the side the line moved toward won by much more than the closing number. On the same night, five NHL underdogs won and a college football long shot won by 31.
NFL
First, a few terms. The spread is the margin a favorite has to win by, and a team "covers" when it beats that margin. A line move is how far the number changes between the opening line and the closing line. Thursday's game had about as big a move as you'll see. Baltimore went from a 4.5-point favorite to a 9.5-point underdog, so the favorite flipped before kickoff. Action News Jax reported that the Ravens were playing without star quarterback Lamar Jackson because of an injury.
The late number still didn't go far enough. Jacksonville closed at -455 on the moneyline, which is a straight bet on who wins. That price gave the Jaguars a 78.7% chance. They won by 23, covering the 9.5-point spread by 13.5.
The total is the combined score the book sets for over and under bets, and it moved too, falling from 49.5 to 40.5. The game finished at 43, which is 2.5 over the closing total. That made it the one line move of the night that pointed the wrong way: the number dropped 9 points and the game still went over.
NHL
Eleven games produced the most chaos of the day. Favorites went just 6-5 straight up and 4-7 on the puck line. The puck line is hockey's version of the spread, usually set at a goal and a half.
The biggest upset was Nashville's 3-2 win at Colorado. The Predators closed at +180, a 34.3% chance, and covered the puck line by 2.5. Anaheim was next, winning 5-4 at Edmonton as a +160 underdog with a 36.9% chance. The three other upsets were close to coin flips. Montreal (+105, 46.8%) beat Utah 5-4, and Columbus (+105, 46.8%) beat Dallas 2-1. Boston (+102, 47.4%) won 6-2 at Pittsburgh.
Boston-Pittsburgh had the night's only puck line move. Pittsburgh opened as a -1.5 favorite and closed as a +1.5 underdog, a three-goal swing toward Boston. The Bruins won by four, so the move was right.
Several favorites won but fell just short of covering. New Jersey beat St. Louis 5-4 and the Rangers beat the Flyers 3-2. Both were -1.5 favorites, so both one-goal wins fell short of the puck line by half a goal. Carolina went the other way, beating the Islanders 5-3 and covering by exactly half a goal.
Two totals missed by 3.5 goals each. St. Louis and New Jersey combined for 9 against a total of 5.5. Vegas and Detroit went the opposite direction. Their total rose from 5.5 to 6.5, and the game finished with 3 goals in Vegas's 2-1 win. Detroit still covered as a +1.5 underdog by half a goal. The other two total moves were right. Carolina-Islanders rose to 6.5 and finished at 8, and Flyers-Rangers dropped to 5.5 and finished at 5.
College football
Florida Atlantic's 60-29 win over UTSA was the most surprising result of the day. UTSA closed at -285, which left FAU at +230, a 29.0% chance. FAU had been getting 7 points and won by 31, covering by 38. The spread had moved half a point toward UTSA, the wrong way. The total rose from 70.5 to 72.5, which was the right direction but nowhere near enough. The game finished at 89, 16.5 over.
James Madison beat Southern Miss 54-23 as a -575 favorite, an 81.7% chance. The spread moved 2 points toward Southern Miss, from 15.5 to 13.5. That move was also wrong, since JMU covered by 17.5. This total rose 2 points as well, to 58.5, and the game finished at 77. That was 18.5 over, the biggest total miss of the day in any sport. Both college totals moved up and both went over, but each one beat its closing number by more than two touchdowns.
NBA
The NBA was the quietest league, with favorites going 2-0 straight up and against the spread. Golden State beat Miami 120-100. The spread had moved 1 point toward Miami, from -4.5 to -3.5, but the Warriors covered by 16.5. That total dropped from 238.5 to 236.5, and the game finished at 220, 16.5 under. Phoenix beat Orlando 117-104 as a -1.5 favorite, covering by 11.5, in what the moneyline treated as close to a coin flip (52.5%). That total also dropped 2 points and finished 1.5 under at 221. Both NBA total moves were right.
The long shots
FAU was the least likely winner on the board at 29.0%. The next two were the NHL's Nashville (34.3%) and Anaheim (36.9%). Taken one at a time, none of those is shocking. The NHL's five upsets together are another story. The closing lines gave all five winning about a 1 in 76 chance. As a hypothetical parlay, just to show the scale, those five underdogs would have paid +6,080. Picking the winner of all 11 NHL games would have been about a 1 in 1,022 chance.
By the numbers
Favorites went 10-6 straight up across all four leagues but just 8-8 against the spread.
Totals that moved were right 6 times out of 8, but spread moves went just 2-3.
Overs beat unders 9-7, with both college games clearing their totals by more than 16 points.
Jacksonville's 14-point swing from open to close was the biggest line move of the day, and the side it moved toward covered by 13.5.
NHL underdogs won 5 of 11 games, and the five together had about a 1 in 76 chance.
Sources
Context beyond our own data comes from:
NFL: every game against the line
Favorites 1-0 straight up, 1-0 against the spread. Overs-unders 1-0. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX 33 @ BAL 10 | BAL -4.5 → +9.5 JAX covered | 49.5 → 40.5 Over (43) | JAX -455 78.7% chance |
NBA: every game against the line
Favorites 2-0 straight up, 2-0 against the spread. Overs-unders 0-2. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORL 104 @ PHX 117 | PHX -1.5 PHX covered | 224.5 → 222.5 Under (221) | PHX -121 52.5% chance |
| MIA 100 @ GS 120 | GS -4.5 → -3.5 GS covered | 238.5 → 236.5 Under (220) | GS -167 60% chance |
NHL: every game against the line
Favorites 6-5 straight up, 4-7 against the puck line. Overs-unders 6-5. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Puck line | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTA 4 @ MTL 5 | MTL +1.5 MTL covered | 6.5 Over (9) | MTL +105 46.8% chance, upset |
| VGK 2 @ DET 1 | DET +1.5 DET covered | 5.5 → 6.5 Under (3) | VGK -148 57.2% chance |
| CHI 1 @ TB 4 | TB -1.5 TB covered | 6.5 Under (5) | TB -485 79.6% chance |
| STL 4 @ NJ 5 | NJ -1.5 STL covered | 5.5 Over (9) | NJ -238 67.5% chance |
| CAR 5 @ NYI 3 | NYI +1.5 CAR covered | 5.5 → 6.5 Over (8) | CAR -205 64.5% chance |
| PHI 2 @ NYR 3 | NYR -1.5 PHI covered | 6.5 → 5.5 Under (5) | NYR -148 57.2% chance |
| BOS 6 @ PIT 2 | PIT -1.5 → +1.5 BOS covered | 6.5 Over (8) | BOS +102 47.4% chance, upset |
| DAL 1 @ CBJ 2 | CBJ +1.5 CBJ covered | 5.5 Under (3) | CBJ +105 46.8% chance, upset |
| VAN 2 @ WPG 6 | WPG -1.5 WPG covered | 6.5 Over (8) | WPG -218 65.7% chance |
| ANA 5 @ EDM 4 | EDM -1.5 ANA covered | 6.5 Over (9) | ANA +160 36.9% chance, upset |
| NSH 3 @ COL 2 | COL -1.5 NSH covered | 6.5 Under (5) | NSH +180 34.3% chance, upset |
College football: every game against the line
Favorites 1-1 straight up, 1-1 against the spread. Overs-unders 2-0. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTSA 29 @ FAU 60 | FAU +6.5 → +7 FAU covered | 70.5 → 72.5 Over (89) | FAU +230 29% chance, upset |
| JMU 54 @ USM 23 | USM +15.5 → +13.5 JMU covered | 56.5 → 58.5 Over (77) | JMU -575 81.7% chance |
Lines are DraftKings' opening and closing numbers. Chance is the closing moneyline with the sportsbook's cut removed. Past results don't predict future ones.
Our picks for this day and how they did