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Best bets for Thursday, November 5, 2026

Published November 4, 2026

Thursday's board is mostly hockey. Seven of our top 10 picks are NHL games, two come from the 8:15 PM ET NFL game, and one is a college football upset pick. The top pick shows an expected profit of $10.61 per $100 and the 10th still shows $3.51. Those numbers are long-run averages over many bets like these. They don't predict any single night, and any one of these can lose.

Ducks at Oilers under 6.5 goals

Our top pick is under 6.5 total goals when Anaheim visits Edmonton at 8:00 PM ET. The best price is +124 at DraftKings, so a winning $100 bet pays $124 in profit if the two teams score six goals or fewer combined. It's backed by 3,698 look-alike games, a very large sample, and blending those with the market price gives an expected profit of $10.61 per $100. Why might the price be off? A plus-money price means the books think the under is less likely than the over. Our look-alike games say it lands often enough that +124 pays more than it should.

Brian Thomas Jr. over 1.5 receptions

In Thursday's NFL game at 8:15 PM ET, we like Brian Thomas Jr. to catch at least two passes, at +157 at DraftKings. That's a low bar, yet the price pays better than 3-to-2. The sample is much smaller here, 62 look-alike games. So treat the expected profit of $6.27 per $100 with more caution than the hockey numbers. The idea is simple: such a long price on such a low catch total looks like it overrates the chance of a quiet night.

Canucks +1.5 at Jets

Vancouver plus 1.5 goals at Winnipeg, 8:00 PM ET, is priced at -120 at Fanatics. The bet wins if Vancouver wins outright or loses by just one goal. You risk $120 to win $100. It's backed by 2,083 look-alike games, with an expected profit of $6.17 per $100. Our look-alike games suggest close finishes like this one happen a bit more often than -120 implies, so the cushion is priced a little cheap.

The rest of the list has a mix of underdogs and cushions. FAU to beat UTSA at 7:30 PM ET is +225 at Bovada, backed by 833 look-alike games and an expected profit of $5.59 per $100. Rashod Bateman over 14.5 receiving yards in the NFL game is -111 at DraftKings (101 games, $5.04). Chicago +2.5 at Tampa Bay is -140 at Fanatics (759 games, $4.75), and Vegas at Detroit over 6.5 is +115 at Fanatics (3,698 games, $4.22). Anaheim +1.5 at Edmonton is -143 at Caesars (2,515 games, $3.87). It shares a game with our top pick, and a low-scoring night would likely help both, so they can win or lose together. To close out the list, Nashville +1.5 at Colorado at 9:30 PM ET is -118 at Caesars (1,786 games, $3.77), and St. Louis to win at New Jersey is +158 at BetOnline.ag (2,515 games, $3.51).

The top 10 bets on our NFL, college football, NHL board for Thursday, November 5, 2026, ranked by expected profit per $100 after the sportsbook's cut. Each one is priced from how look-alike past games turned out (similar line, home or away, rest), at the best price we found across up to 11 sportsbooks.

Profit per $100 is the expected long-run average, not a promise: even the best edges lose often. Our full track record shows how the method has done over eight NFL seasons.