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NFL and NBA and NHL odds recap for Sunday, November 1, 2026: what the lines got right and wrong
Tennessee lost in Cincinnati on Sunday and still made the betting market look bad twice in one afternoon. Between the opening and closing lines, the spread moved 7 points toward the Bengals, from Cincinnati -6.5 to -13.5. A spread is the margin the favorite has to win by, and a team "covers" when it beats that margin, or, as the underdog, loses by less than it. A line move is the change in a number between when betting opens and when the game starts. Over the same stretch, the total (the combined score the market expects) dropped from 49.5 to 45.5. Then Cincinnati won 43-36. The Titans covered by 6.5, and the teams combined for 79 points, 33.5 over the closing total. That was the biggest miss on an NFL board that otherwise mostly went to form.
NFL
Favorites went 10-2 straight up and 8-4 against the spread. Overs and unders split 6-6, and home teams went 9-3 against the spread. The day's biggest upset came in Dallas, where Arizona won 33-30 as a +270 underdog on the moneyline. The moneyline is a straight bet on who wins, and +270 means a $100 bet would have returned $270 in profit. After removing the book's cut, the closing price gave the Cardinals a 25.9% chance. The market had been moving their way: Dallas opened at -10.5 and closed at -7, a 3.5-point move toward Arizona that turned out right, since the Cardinals covered by 10. The other upset was Las Vegas winning 38-33 at the Jets at +110, a 45.7% chance. That game also flew past its number. The total rose from 41.5 to 46.5 and still finished 24.5 points over.
The most lopsided covers came from home favorites. Jacksonville beat Indianapolis 42-7 and covered by 24.5 points. Buffalo beat Baltimore 36-10 and covered by 23. Pittsburgh beat Cleveland 27-6 and covered by 17.5. Tampa Bay's 16-0 shutout of Atlanta produced the day's second-biggest total miss: the total was 43.5, and the teams scored 27.5 fewer points. Baltimore-Buffalo went the opposite way from its line move. The total climbed 3 points to 54.5, and the game finished 8.5 under.
The biggest spread move of the day was in Washington. The Commanders opened as 2.5-point underdogs against Philadelphia and closed as 5.5-point favorites, an 8-point swing that flipped the favorite. Washington won 27-10 and covered by 11.5. Jacksonville's line moved 6 points its way and the Jaguars delivered, and the Rams' 3-point move toward them also paid off in a 24-9 win. The moves toward Cincinnati, Minnesota, Cleveland and Atlanta all missed. Teams the spread moved toward went 5-4, and total moves pointed the right direction in 7 of 12 games.
NBA
Brooklyn was the only underdog to win on a four-game slate. The Nets won 98-90 at Indiana at +130, a 41.7% chance. Indiana's spread had slipped a point to -3.5 before tip, and Brooklyn covered by 11.5. That game also produced the worst total miss of the day in any sport: the total sat at 230.5 and the teams scored 188, which is 42.5 under. Toronto and the Lakers went the other way. Their total was cut from 227.5 to 224.5, and the Lakers' 131-125 win finished 31.5 over. Golden State covered by 10.5 against the Clippers even though the line had moved a point toward Los Angeles. Favorites went 3-1 both straight up and against the spread, and spread movers went 1-2.
NHL
Hockey was the one league where favorites lost more than they won, going 2-3. On the puck line, hockey's version of the spread, usually set at 1.5 goals, they also went 2-3. Philadelphia beat Utah 6-3 at +140, a 40.0% chance. Edmonton won 4-1 at the Rangers at +105, and Anaheim beat Ottawa 6-3 at +102. Anaheim opened as the favorite and closed as the underdog, so the market moved away from the team that won. Minnesota's game went the other way. The Wild became the favorite before puck drop and won 5-1 in Washington, covering the puck line by 2.5. Carolina shut out Winnipeg 7-0 as a -278 favorite. The only total that moved, Utah-Philadelphia, rose from 5.5 to 6.5, and the game cleared it with 9 goals.
The long shots
The least likely result of the day was Arizona's win, at roughly a one-in-four chance. The groups of underdogs together were longer shots. As a hypothetical parlay, just to show the scale, the NFL's two underdog winners together had about a 1 in 8 chance and would have paid +677. Hockey's three underdog winners came in at about 1 in 11, which would have paid +894. Picking every NHL winner correctly was about a 1-in-30 chance worth +2,359, and picking all four NBA winners was about 1 in 10 at +773. The hardest of all was naming the winner of every NFL game, at about 1 in 536. That's because even a 10-2 day for favorites carries two upsets.
By the numbers
Brooklyn-Indiana finished 42.5 points under its total, the day's biggest miss in either direction.
Tennessee-Cincinnati went 33.5 over after the total was cut by 4 points.
Washington's spread moved 8 points from open to close, the most of any game, and the Commanders covered by 11.5.
NFL home teams went 9-3 against the spread.
Arizona's 25.9% chance was the lowest of any winner on Sunday.
Sources
Context beyond our own data comes from:
NFL: every game against the line
Favorites 10-2 straight up, 8-4 against the spread. Overs-unders 6-6. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL 10 @ BUF 36 | BUF -2.5 → -3 BUF covered | 51.5 → 54.5 Under (46) | BUF -162 59.3% chance |
| TEN 36 @ CIN 43 | CIN -6.5 → -13.5 TEN covered | 49.5 → 45.5 Over (79) | CIN -950 86.8% chance |
| ARI 33 @ DAL 30 | DAL -10.5 → -7 ARI covered | 49.5 → 54.5 Over (63) | ARI +270 25.9% chance, upset |
| MIN 15 @ DET 19 | DET -4.5 → -3.5 DET covered | 47.5 → 45.5 Under (34) | DET -175 60.9% chance |
| LV 38 @ NYJ 33 | NYJ -1.5 LV covered | 41.5 → 46.5 Over (71) | LV +110 45.7% chance, upset |
| CLE 6 @ PIT 27 | PIT -5.5 → -3.5 PIT covered | 39.5 → 38.5 Under (33) | PIT -192 63.1% chance |
| ATL 0 @ TB 16 | TB -4.5 → -2.5 TB covered | 46.5 → 43.5 Under (16) | TB -130 54.3% chance |
| IND 7 @ JAX 42 | JAX -4.5 → -10.5 JAX covered | 49.5 → 45.5 Over (49) | JAX -500 80% chance |
| LAC 9 @ LAR 24 | LAR -3.5 → -6.5 LAR covered | 48.5 → 45.5 Under (33) | LAR -278 70.5% chance |
| KC 24 @ DEN 28 | DEN -1.5 DEN covered | 43.5 → 41.5 Over (52) | DEN -115 51.1% chance |
| NE 24 @ MIA 19 | MIA +7 MIA covered | 45.5 → 41.5 Over (43) | NE -345 74.4% chance |
| PHI 10 @ WSH 27 | WSH +2.5 → -5.5 WSH covered | 46.5 → 40.5 Under (37) | WSH -250 68.5% chance |
NBA: every game against the line
Favorites 3-1 straight up, 3-1 against the spread. Overs-unders 2-2. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOS 108 @ ORL 97 | ORL +6.5 BOS covered | 222.5 → 221.5 Under (205) | BOS -285 71% chance |
| BKN 98 @ IND 90 | IND -4.5 → -3.5 BKN covered | 230.5 Under (188) | BKN +130 41.7% chance, upset |
| LAC 112 @ GS 124 | GS -2.5 → -1.5 GS covered | 219.5 → 220.5 Over (236) | GS -130 54.3% chance |
| TOR 125 @ LAL 131 | LAL -4.5 → -3.5 LAL covered | 227.5 → 224.5 Over (256) | LAL -170 60.4% chance |
NHL: every game against the line
Favorites 2-3 straight up, 2-3 against the puck line. Overs-unders 3-2. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Puck line | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| WPG 0 @ CAR 7 | CAR -1.5 CAR covered | 6.5 Over (7) | CAR -278 70.5% chance |
| MIN 5 @ WSH 1 | WSH -1.5 → +1.5 MIN covered | 6.5 Under (6) | MIN -122 52.6% chance |
| UTA 3 @ PHI 6 | PHI +1.5 PHI covered | 5.5 → 6.5 Over (9) | PHI +140 40% chance, upset |
| EDM 4 @ NYR 1 | NYR -1.5 EDM covered | 6.5 Under (5) | EDM +105 46.8% chance, upset |
| OTT 3 @ ANA 6 | ANA -1.5 → +1.5 ANA covered | 6.5 Over (9) | ANA +102 47.4% chance, upset |
Lines are DraftKings' opening and closing numbers. Chance is the closing moneyline with the sportsbook's cut removed. Past results don't predict future ones.
Our picks for this day and how they did