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Best bets for Sunday, November 1, 2026

Published October 31, 2026

Sunday's board is all NFL, and it leans heavily toward the early window. Seven of our top 10 picks start at 1:00 PM ET, two come from the 4:25 PM ET slot and two close out the night at 8:20 PM ET. Most of the list is player props on catches and yards, the small lines where sportsbooks sometimes leave value. Every figure below is a long-run average per $100 at the best price we found. None of it is a promise about Sunday.

Dawson Knox over 1.5 receptions

The top play needs the Buffalo tight end to catch two passes. It pays +160 at BetMGM, so a winning $100 bet returns $160 in profit. The model puts the expected profit at +$12.40 per $100, based on 171 look-alike games. Two catches is a low bar, and the price suggests the books see Knox as a minor part of the passing game. In past games that looked like this one, players cleared that bar often enough that +160 looks too generous. Knox shows up again at number 8, over 7.5 receiving yards.

Aaron Jones over 29.5 rushing yards

Jones needs 30 yards on the ground. The best price is -108 at DraftKings, which means risking $108 to win $100. Expected profit is +$11.05 per $100 across 243 look-alike games. With a line this low, a couple of decent runs gets it close. The look-alikes say backs in similar spots got there more often than this near-even price assumes.

Jerry Jeudy over 2.5 receptions

The third pick asks for three catches from Jeudy at +148 on FanDuel. Expected profit is +$10.24 per $100, and the sample is the largest of the top three at 390 look-alike games. That bigger sample makes the estimate a bit sturdier. The plus-money price suggests the market sees three catches as less likely than not, and the history of similar spots doesn't agree.

The rest of the list includes two picks from the same late-afternoon game: Patrick Mahomes over 222.5 passing yards at -111 on DraftKings (+$8.44, 358 games) and Travis Kelce over 4.5 receptions at +128 on DraftKings (+$7.62, 329 games). Since both depend on the same passing game, they will often win or lose together. Lamar Jackson over 25.5 rushing yards at -105 on BetMGM (+$7.57) and Samaje Perine under 23.5 rushing yards at -109 on DraftKings (+$6.01) have the thinnest samples on the board, at 84 and 60 games. Treat those two estimates as rougher. Knox's yardage over at -109 on DraftKings (+$7.09) also rests on just 84 games. The Sunday night game gives us Stefon Diggs over 4.5 receptions at +132 on FanDuel (+$6.36). That number comes from the day's biggest sample, 755 games. The same game also has Dallas Goedert under 4.5 receptions at +118 on DraftKings (+$6.33, 237 games). Check injury reports before kickoff, because a late lineup change can wipe out any of these edges.

The top 10 bets on our NFL board for Sunday, November 1, 2026, ranked by expected profit per $100 after the sportsbook's cut. Each one is priced from how look-alike past games turned out (similar line, home or away, rest), at the best price we found across up to 11 sportsbooks.

Profit per $100 is the expected long-run average, not a promise: even the best edges lose often. Our full track record shows how the method has done over eight NFL seasons.