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NFL and NBA and NHL and College football odds recap for Thursday, October 29, 2026: what the lines got right and wrong
Troy turned the biggest number on the board into the night's headline. James Madison closed as a 17.5-point favorite at home, and the moneyline (the bet on who wins outright, with no points involved) priced Troy at +675. With the book's cut removed, that gave Troy a 12.4% chance. Troy won 24-21. Hockey had its own surprise: across 11 NHL games, favorites went 8-3 at winning but just 3-8 at covering the puck line.
NHL
Three underdogs won. Montreal was the most convincing, beating Dallas 5-2 at +145, a 39.1% chance. The Islanders won 4-3 at Minnesota at +180, which the market rated a 34.3% chance and the lowest-rated winner of the night on the ice. Los Angeles beat Ottawa 6-5 at +105, a 46.8% chance.
The Kings game also had the night's only puck line move. Hockey's version of the point spread is the puck line, almost always set at 1.5 goals. A line move is a change between the opening number and the closing one. Los Angeles opened at -1.5, meaning the Kings had to win by two, and closed at +1.5, meaning they could lose by one and still cover. That's a 3-goal swing toward Ottawa, and the favorite flipped from the Kings to the Senators. The side the line moved toward did not cover. The Kings won outright and covered by 2.5.
The 3-8 puck line record mostly came from one-goal games. Carolina beat Columbus 3-2 and San Jose beat Vancouver 3-2. Both teams won as moneyline favorites (Carolina had a 69.1% chance at -258) but missed covering -1.5 by half a goal. Buffalo beat Anaheim 7-6 and Washington beat Nashville 4-3, so both underdogs covered at +1.5. Tampa Bay was the most comfortable favorite of the night at 66.4%. The Lightning beat Winnipeg 6-4 and covered by 0.5. Detroit and St. Louis both won by three and covered by 1.5.
The total is the combined score the market sets, and bettors pick over or under it. Overs went 7-4. Buffalo and Anaheim scored 13 goals against a 6.5 total, 6.5 over. Ottawa and Los Angeles combined for 11 against 5.5, and Winnipeg and Tampa Bay put up 10 against 5.5. Carolina-Columbus was the only total that moved. It went up from 5.5 to 6.5, and the game finished with 5.
NBA
Memphis delivered the result of the night in basketball. The Grizzlies were +230 at Portland, a 29.0% chance, and won 124-103. Portland was a 7.5-point favorite, so Memphis covered by 28.5 points. To cover means beating the spread: the favorite has to win by more than the number, or the underdog has to lose by less or win outright.
New Orleans had the only spread move. The line went from -5.5 to -6.5 toward the Pelicans, and they beat Sacramento 132-120, covering by 5.5. That same game blew past its total. The total had dropped from 237.5 to 234.5, and the teams scored 252, going over by 17.5. Cleveland and Atlanta missed in the other direction. Their total dropped from 239.5 to 237.5, and the game finished at 225, 12.5 under. That made it the one total move of the day that pointed the right way. Atlanta won the closest-priced game, 114-111, as a 51.7% favorite and covered -1.5 by exactly 1.5.
College football
Troy's win against a 17.5-point spread meant the Trojans covered by 20.5. The game also stayed 7.5 points under a 52.5 total.
Florida Atlantic and North Texas showed both sides of the line moves. The spread grew from North Texas -12.5 to -15.5, a 3-point move toward the Mean Green. North Texas won 48-41 but didn't cover, and FAU covered by 8.5. The total climbed from 69.5 to 78.5, and the teams scored 89 anyway, going over by 10.5. So the total moved the right way while the spread moved the wrong way. Favorites went 0-2 against the spread in college football, and so did home teams.
NFL
Green Bay beat Carolina 27-19. The spread moved 3.5 points toward Carolina, from Packers -7 to -3.5, and the Packers covered the closing number by 4.5 anyway. They were -185 on the moneyline, a 62.2% chance. The total rose from 45.5 to 47.5, and the game finished with 46, so the under hit by 1.5. Both of the game's line moves went the wrong way.
The long shots
Troy was the least likely winner of the night, at 12.4%, or about 1 in 8. Memphis was next at 29.0%. As a hypothetical, for scale: a parlay is a single bet that combines several picks and only pays if every one wins. One that combined the three NHL underdog winners, Montreal, the Islanders and Los Angeles, would have been about a 1 in 16 chance at the closing lines and would have paid +1,306. Picking the winner of all 11 NHL games was about a 1 in 1,161 chance. In the NBA, picking all three winners, including Memphis, was about a 1 in 10 chance and would have paid +766 as one parlay.
By the numbers
NHL favorites won 8 of 11 games but covered the puck line in only 3.
Ottawa and Los Angeles had the night's only flipped favorite, and the Kings won it as a 46.8% underdog.
Memphis covered by 28.5 points, the widest cover margin of the day.
Sacramento and New Orleans went 17.5 points over the total, the biggest total miss on the board.
The spread moves in the NFL and college football both went the wrong way, and the favorite won both of those games.
Sources
Context beyond our own data comes from:
NFL: every game against the line
Favorites 1-0 straight up, 1-0 against the spread. Overs-unders 0-1. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR 19 @ GB 27 | GB -7 → -3.5 GB covered | 45.5 → 47.5 Under (46) | GB -185 62.2% chance |
NBA: every game against the line
Favorites 2-1 straight up, 2-1 against the spread. Overs-unders 1-2. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE 111 @ ATL 114 | ATL -1.5 ATL covered | 239.5 → 237.5 Under (225) | ATL -118 51.7% chance |
| SAC 120 @ NO 132 | NO -5.5 → -6.5 NO covered | 237.5 → 234.5 Over (252) | NO -238 67.5% chance |
| MEM 124 @ POR 103 | POR -7.5 MEM covered | 232.5 → 233.5 Under (227) | MEM +230 29% chance, upset |
NHL: every game against the line
Favorites 8-3 straight up, 3-8 against the puck line. Overs-unders 7-4. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Puck line | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| WPG 4 @ TB 6 | TB -1.5 TB covered | 5.5 Over (10) | TB -225 66.4% chance |
| UTA 4 @ PIT 3 | PIT +1.5 PIT covered | 6.5 Over (7) | UTA -130 54.3% chance |
| CBJ 2 @ CAR 3 | CAR -1.5 CBJ covered | 5.5 → 6.5 Under (5) | CAR -258 69.1% chance |
| CHI 1 @ DET 4 | DET -1.5 DET covered | 5.5 Under (5) | DET -162 59.3% chance |
| BOS 1 @ STL 4 | STL -1.5 STL covered | 5.5 Under (5) | STL -115 51.1% chance |
| WSH 4 @ NSH 3 | NSH +1.5 NSH covered | 6.5 Over (7) | WSH -115 51.1% chance |
| MTL 5 @ DAL 2 | DAL -1.5 MTL covered | 5.5 Over (7) | MTL +145 39.1% chance, upset |
| NYI 4 @ MIN 3 | MIN -1.5 NYI covered | 5.5 Over (7) | NYI +180 34.3% chance, upset |
| BUF 7 @ ANA 6 | ANA +1.5 ANA covered | 6.5 Over (13) | BUF -162 59.3% chance |
| OTT 5 @ LA 6 | LA -1.5 → +1.5 LA covered | 5.5 Over (11) | LA +105 46.8% chance, upset |
| VAN 2 @ SJ 3 | SJ -1.5 VAN covered | 6.5 Under (5) | SJ -166 60% chance |
College football: every game against the line
Favorites 1-1 straight up, 0-2 against the spread. Overs-unders 1-1. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| FAU 41 @ UNT 48 | UNT -12.5 → -15.5 FAU covered | 69.5 → 78.5 Over (89) | UNT -625 82.7% chance |
| TROY 24 @ JMU 21 | JMU -17.5 TROY covered | 52.5 Under (45) | TROY +675 12.4% chance, upset |
Lines are DraftKings' opening and closing numbers. Chance is the closing moneyline with the sportsbook's cut removed. Past results don't predict future ones.
Our picks for this day and how they did