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Best bets for Thursday, October 29, 2026

Published October 28, 2026

Thursday's board is split between one NFL game and a busy NHL night. The top two spots both belong to Darren Waller in the 8:15 PM ET Thursday night football game. Hockey fills most of the rest, with games running from 7:00 PM ET in Carolina to 10:00 PM ET in San Jose. Expected profit is a long-run average over many bets like these. It is not a promise about any single night.

Darren Waller over 2.5 receptions

The top pick is Waller to catch at least three passes at +125 at BetMGM. That means a winning $100 bet pays $125 in profit. The model estimates an expected profit of +$8.04 per $100, based on 141 look-alike games. The appeal is the price. By offering plus money, the book is saying three catches is less likely than not. The look-alike games suggest it happens more often than that price assumes. This is the smallest sample of the top three, so the estimate is the least settled.

Darren Waller over 19.5 receiving yards

Second is the same player from another angle: Waller over 19.5 receiving yards at -108 at DraftKings. The estimated profit is +$7.51 per $100 across 271 look-alike games. The bar is fairly low, and the model thinks the market has set it a bit too high for the chance it gets cleared. Keep in mind that this bet and the top pick are closely tied. If Waller has a quiet night, both will probably lose together.

CBJ +1.5 at Carolina

Third is Columbus +1.5 goals at Carolina at -118 at FanDuel. It carries an estimated +$6.98 per $100, backed by 2,071 look-alike games. The bet wins if the Blue Jackets win outright or lose by exactly one goal. In comparable games, the model estimates that outcome comes in more often than the -118 price implies. The much bigger sample makes this a steadier estimate than either Waller bet, though a steadier estimate doesn't mean a likelier win on any given night.

The rest of the list leans toward low-scoring hockey and unders on football players. Utah at Pittsburgh under 6.5 is +114 at FanDuel (+$6.49), and Vancouver at San Jose under 6.5 is +110 at FanDuel (+$5.29). Each is based on 3,665 look-alike games. In Thursday's football game, Christian Watson under 4.5 receptions is +105 at BetMGM (+$4.66, 761 games), and Chuba Hubbard under 67.5 rushing yards is -112 at DraftKings (+$4.64, 361 games). Montreal at Dallas shows up three times. The under 5.5 is +120 at DraftKings (+$4.42, 4,785 games), Montreal to win is +146 at FanDuel (+$4.39, 2,757 games), and the over 6.5 is +115 at Fanatics (+$4.32, 3,665 games). Those two totals point in opposite directions at different numbers, and a game with exactly six goals would lose both. They reflect two separate prices the model likes, not one prediction about how the game will go. As with everything on the board, these edges are small and only make sense over many bets.

The top 10 bets on our NFL, NHL board for Thursday, October 29, 2026, ranked by expected profit per $100 after the sportsbook's cut. Each one is priced from how look-alike past games turned out (similar line, home or away, rest), at the best price we found across up to 11 sportsbooks.

Profit per $100 is the expected long-run average, not a promise: even the best edges lose often. Our full track record shows how the method has done over eight NFL seasons.