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NBA and NHL and College football odds recap for Wednesday, October 28, 2026: what the lines got right and wrong
Four NBA underdogs won outright on Wednesday, and the biggest of them won easily. The Dallas Mavericks closed as +160 underdogs at home against Oklahoma City, which gave them about a 36.9% chance once the book's cut is taken out. They won 120-96. ESPN's recap described the Thunder as "injury-depleted" and said Cooper Flagg led Dallas. Together with Miami, Golden State and the Lakers, it made for a bad night for anyone backing NBA favorites.
NBA
Favorites went 8-4 straight up, meaning they won the game, but only 5-7 against the spread. The spread is the number of points a favorite has to win by. A team "covers" when it beats that number, or when it's the underdog and loses by less than the number or wins outright.
Dallas was the biggest upset by moneyline, the bet on who simply wins the game. The Mavericks covered the 4.5-point spread by 28.5, the biggest cover of the night. The line had moved one point toward Dallas between open and close. A line move is the change in the number from when betting opens to tip-off, and this one was right.
The Lakers-Clippers game was the strangest. The Clippers opened as 5.5-point underdogs and closed as 1.5-point favorites. That 7-point swing was the biggest move of the night, and it flipped which team was favored. The move was wrong. The Lakers, at -108 and given a 49.6% chance, won 103-87 and covered by 17.5.
Philadelphia-Indiana was another big move that missed. Indiana opened at +1.5 and closed at +7.5, a 6-point move toward the 76ers. Philadelphia won 114-109, but the Pacers covered by 2.5. Golden State went the other way: Minnesota went from -6.5 to -3.5, the Warriors won 119-114 at +130 (a 41.7% chance), and the move toward them was right. Miami won 129-117 in Atlanta at +120, a 43.7% chance, and covered by 14.5. Overall, spread moves split 4-4.
Toronto beat Orlando by 30 and covered by 24.5. Houston covered by 23.5 in a 132-100 win at Milwaukee. Two favorites only just covered: Cleveland beat Washington by 10 against a 9.5-point line, and Detroit beat Charlotte by 8 against a 7.5-point line. Chicago lost 133-127 to New York but covered the 7.5 by 1.5. Utah lost to San Antonio by 6 but covered 13.5 points by 7.5, even though the Spurs went in with an 84.7% chance to win.
The total is the combined points the market expects, and you bet over or under it. Unders went 7-5, and the biggest misses were huge. Denver beat New Orleans 104-91, and the 195 total points came in 46.5 under the closing 241.5. That total had moved up from 238.5, so it went the wrong way. The Lakers and Clippers scored 190, 34.5 under. Charlotte and Detroit scored 186, 26.5 under. New York and Chicago went the other way with 260 points, 26.5 over a total of 233.5. Even so, total moves were right 7 times out of 11.
NHL
In hockey, the main spread is the puck line, almost always 1.5 goals. Favorites went 3-1 straight up and 3-1 on the puck line, and home teams went 4-0 on it.
The only upset came in Seattle, where the Kraken beat Toronto 5-4 at +110, a 45.7% chance. Seattle also opened as the favorite and closed as the underdog, so the flip went against the eventual winner. That game's 9 goals beat the total of 6.5 by 2.5.
Edmonton shut out Calgary 4-0 and covered by 2.5, the only under on the board. Washington beat Philadelphia 5-2 and Colorado beat New Jersey 5-2, both covering by 1.5. The night's only total move got it wrong: Flyers-Capitals dropped from 6.5 to 5.5, and the game finished with 7 goals.
College football
Only two games had lines, and both road favorites won and covered. Kennesaw State opened as a 2.5-point underdog at Middle Tennessee and closed as a 1.5-point favorite. That 4-point move was right: Kennesaw won 44-28 and covered by 14.5. The 72 points went 22.5 over a total of 49.5.
Jacksonville State shut out New Mexico State 24-0. It covered a 3-point spread by 21, and the game finished 26.5 under its total of 50.5.
The long shots
None of the four NBA upsets was a huge long shot on its own, since each team had somewhere between about 37% and 50% chance. Together they add up. The closing lines gave all four about a 1 in 30 chance of winning on the same night. As a hypothetical parlay, which is one bet that needs every pick to win and is used here only for scale, they would have paid +2,434. Getting every NBA winner right across all 12 games was about a 1 in 452 chance.
The hockey slate was much easier to call. Picking all four NHL winners was about a 1 in 9 chance, and as a hypothetical parlay it would have paid +663.
The totals may have been the least predictable thing on Wednesday. Missing by 46.5 points in Denver-New Orleans and 34.5 in Lakers-Clippers was further off than any spread miss of the day.
By the numbers
NBA favorites went 8-4 straight up but 5-7 against the spread.
NHL home teams went 4-0 on the puck line.
The biggest spread move of the day, 7 points toward the Clippers, was wrong by 17.5 points.
Denver-New Orleans finished 46.5 points under its closing total.
Dallas, the day's least likely winner at 36.9%, won by 24.
Sources
Context beyond our own data comes from:
- Mavericks 120-96 Thunder (Oct 28, 2026) Game Recap - ESPN
- Thunder vs. Mavericks (Oct 28, 2026) Box Score - ESPN
NBA: every game against the line
Favorites 8-4 straight up, 5-7 against the spread. Overs-unders 5-7. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA 129 @ ATL 117 | ATL -3.5 → -2.5 MIA covered | 239.5 → 243.5 Over (246) | MIA +120 43.7% chance, upset |
| WSH 111 @ CLE 121 | CLE -10.5 → -9.5 CLE covered | 239.5 → 240.5 Under (232) | CLE -395 76.6% chance |
| CHA 89 @ DET 97 | DET -7.5 DET covered | 216.5 → 212.5 Under (186) | DET -290 71.4% chance |
| PHI 114 @ IND 109 | IND +1.5 → +7.5 IND covered | 237.5 → 234.5 Under (223) | PHI -278 70.5% chance |
| ORL 99 @ TOR 129 | TOR -4.5 → -5.5 TOR covered | 223.5 → 224.5 Over (228) | TOR -192 63.1% chance |
| NY 133 @ CHI 127 | CHI +7.5 CHI covered | 234.5 → 233.5 Over (260) | NY -278 70.5% chance |
| HOU 132 @ MIL 100 | MIL +8.5 HOU covered | 227.5 → 226.5 Over (232) | HOU -340 74.1% chance |
| GS 119 @ MIN 114 | MIN -6.5 → -3.5 GS covered | 227.5 Over (233) | GS +130 41.7% chance, upset |
| DEN 104 @ NO 91 | NO +4.5 DEN covered | 238.5 → 241.5 Under (195) | DEN -180 61.6% chance |
| SA 117 @ UTAH 111 | UTAH +12.5 → +13.5 UTAH covered | 234.5 → 232.5 Under (228) | SA -750 84.7% chance |
| OKC 96 @ DAL 120 | DAL +5.5 → +4.5 DAL covered | 230.5 → 227.5 Under (216) | DAL +160 36.9% chance, upset |
| LAL 103 @ LAC 87 | LAC +5.5 → -1.5 LAL covered | 228.5 → 224.5 Under (190) | LAL -108 49.6% chance, upset |
NHL: every game against the line
Favorites 3-1 straight up, 3-1 against the puck line. Overs-unders 3-1. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Puck line | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI 2 @ WSH 5 | WSH -1.5 WSH covered | 6.5 → 5.5 Over (7) | WSH -245 68.1% chance |
| CGY 0 @ EDM 4 | EDM -1.5 EDM covered | 6.5 Under (4) | EDM -185 62.2% chance |
| NJ 2 @ COL 5 | COL -1.5 COL covered | 6.5 Over (7) | COL -148 57.2% chance |
| TOR 4 @ SEA 5 | SEA +1.5 SEA covered | 6.5 Over (9) | SEA +110 45.7% chance, upset |
College football: every game against the line
Favorites 2-0 straight up, 2-0 against the spread. Overs-unders 1-1. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| KENN 44 @ MTSU 28 | MTSU -2.5 → +1.5 KENN covered | 49.5 Over (72) | KENN -112 50.4% chance |
| JXST 24 @ NMSU 0 | NMSU +3 JXST covered | 50.5 Under (24) | JXST -155 58.3% chance |
Lines are DraftKings' opening and closing numbers. Chance is the closing moneyline with the sportsbook's cut removed. Past results don't predict future ones.
Our picks for this day and how they did