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NFL and NBA and NHL odds recap for Monday, October 26, 2026: what the lines got right and wrong
Monday's biggest betting story came out of the NFL. The line on Cowboys at Eagles swung all the way to the other team before kickoff, and the market was right about who would win and badly wrong about how many points would be scored.
NFL
Philadelphia opened as a 3-point favorite at home. By kickoff the Eagles were 4.5-point underdogs. That shift is called a line move, meaning the betting line changed between the open and the close, and this one moved 7.5 points toward Dallas. Going into the game, Yahoo Sports reported that the Eagles would keep playing without Jalen Hurts, who has been out with deep vein thrombosis and blood clots in his lungs. The numbers don't say what caused the move.
The side the line moved toward came through. Dallas won 38-21, a 17-point win. Covering means beating the spread, the handicap the market puts on the favorite, and the Cowboys covered by 12.5 points. On the moneyline, which is a straight bet on who wins, Dallas closed at -225. That works out to a 66.4% chance once the book's cut is taken out, so the Cowboys were real favorites and won like it.
The total is the market's guess at the combined score, and that's where it missed. It opened at 48.5, dropped to 43.5 by kickoff, and the teams scored 59. The over cleared by 15.5 points, and the total had moved the wrong way.
NBA
Nine games with lines. Favorites went 6-3 straight up and 5-4 against the spread, and overs and unders split 4-5. When the spread moved, the side it moved toward went 5-2. When the total moved, it moved the right way four times out of six.
The underdog winners led the night. Golden State closed at +220 in Denver, a 30.0% chance, and didn't just win. They won 134-114 as 6.5-point underdogs, the biggest cover of the night at 26.5 points. Their line had moved a point their way from the 7.5 it opened at. Dallas, also +220 and 30.0%, won 113-109 in Miami as a 7.5-point underdog and covered by 11.5. Milwaukee closed at +130 at home against Indiana, a 41.7% chance, won by 8 and covered by 11.5. The Bucks' line had moved a point toward them as well.
Among the favorites, Boston covered most comfortably. The Celtics' spread moved from 13.5 to 14.5, and they still covered by 20.5 in a 134-99 rout of Chicago. In Utah, the favorite flipped before tip-off. The Jazz opened as 1.5-point favorites and closed as 1.5-point underdogs. Memphis, the side the line moved toward, won 110-105 and covered by 3.5, although at -112 it was close to a coin flip, a 50.4% chance. Minnesota's line moved a point toward the Wolves, from +4.5 to +3.5, and they covered by 1.5 while losing 127-125 in Cleveland.
The two spread moves that went wrong were Oklahoma City and Houston. Both lines moved a point toward the underdog, and both favorites covered anyway: the Thunder by 2.5 against Phoenix and the Rockets by 5.5 against Atlanta.
Totals were the market's weak spot. Indiana and Milwaukee finished 27.5 points under a 239.5 total. Memphis-Utah went 22.5 under. Dallas-Miami is the sharpest miss: the total climbed 5 points to 240.5 before tip-off, and the game finished at 222, 18.5 under. At the other end, Minnesota-Cleveland and Phoenix-Oklahoma City both went over by 17.5, and in both games the total had moved up.
NHL
Three games, and the favorites lost all three. They also went 0-3 on the puck line, which is hockey's version of the spread, usually set at a goal and a half. All three games went over the total.
Los Angeles was the biggest underdog surprise only in the size of the win. The Kings closed at +110 at the Rangers, a 45.7% chance, and won 6-3. That covered by 4.5 goals, and the nine combined goals beat a 5.5 total by 3.5. Calgary, +114 at home and a 44.9% chance, beat Toronto 5-2. Detroit was the longest shot on the board at +142, a 39.6% chance, and won 4-3 in Edmonton. The Red Wings covered as the 1.5-goal underdog by 2.5. The other two games each finished at 7 goals, just half a goal over the total.
The long shots
No single result on Monday was a true shocker. The least likely winners were Golden State and Dallas in the NBA, each given a 30.0% chance. The rare part came from stacking results. A parlay ties several bets together, and every one has to win for it to pay. As a hypothetical, for scale: the NBA's three underdog winners together had about a 1 in 27 chance, and as one parlay they would have paid +2,255. Picking the winner of all nine NBA games was about a 1 in 411 chance, a hypothetical +28,073 payout.
Hockey's sweep was more modest. The three NHL underdogs together had about a 1 in 12 chance, a hypothetical +988 parlay. Since all three underdogs won, that was also the chance of picking every NHL winner.
By the numbers
The Cowboys-Eagles spread moved 7.5 points, from Philadelphia -3 to Philadelphia +4.5.
Cowboys-Eagles finished 15.5 points over a total that had been lowered 5 points before kickoff.
Golden State covered by 26.5 points, the biggest cover of the night.
NHL favorites went 0-3 straight up, and overs went 3-0.
Indiana-Milwaukee finished 27.5 points under its total, the widest totals miss of the day.
Sources
Context beyond our own data comes from:
- Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles: How to watch Monday Night Football tonight, start time and where to stream - Yahoo Sports
- What channel is Monday Night Football on? Cowboys vs Eagles TV, time - Yahoo Sports
- Cowboys vs. Eagles final score, result: Dallas cruises to decisive win over NFC East foe on 'MNF' - Yahoo Sports
- Here’s how to watch Cowboys vs. Eagles for free on Monday Night Football - Yahoo Sports
NFL: every game against the line
Favorites 1-0 straight up, 1-0 against the spread. Overs-unders 1-0. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL 38 @ PHI 21 | PHI -3 → +4.5 DAL covered | 48.5 → 43.5 Over (59) | DAL -225 66.4% chance |
NBA: every game against the line
Favorites 6-3 straight up, 5-4 against the spread. Overs-unders 4-5. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| WSH 103 @ CHA 110 | CHA -2.5 CHA covered | 228.5 → 225.5 Under (213) | CHA -142 56.3% chance |
| MIN 125 @ CLE 127 | CLE -4.5 → -3.5 MIN covered | 232.5 → 234.5 Over (252) | CLE -155 58.3% chance |
| CHI 99 @ BOS 134 | BOS -13.5 → -14.5 BOS covered | 233.5 Under (233) | BOS -750 84.7% chance |
| DAL 113 @ MIA 109 | MIA -7.5 DAL covered | 235.5 → 240.5 Under (222) | DAL +220 30% chance, upset |
| IND 102 @ MIL 110 | MIL +4.5 → +3.5 MIL covered | 239.5 Under (212) | MIL +130 41.7% chance, upset |
| PHX 114 @ OKC 125 | OKC -9.5 → -8.5 OKC covered | 218.5 → 221.5 Over (239) | OKC -325 73.4% chance |
| ATL 110 @ HOU 120 | HOU -5.5 → -4.5 HOU covered | 229.5 → 228.5 Over (230) | HOU -192 63.1% chance |
| MEM 110 @ UTAH 105 | UTAH -1.5 → +1.5 MEM covered | 237.5 Under (215) | MEM -112 50.4% chance |
| GS 134 @ DEN 114 | DEN -7.5 → -6.5 GS covered | 235.5 → 236.5 Over (248) | GS +220 30% chance, upset |
NHL: every game against the line
Favorites 0-3 straight up, 0-3 against the puck line. Overs-unders 3-0. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Puck line | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA 6 @ NYR 3 | NYR -1.5 LA covered | 5.5 Over (9) | LA +110 45.7% chance, upset |
| TOR 2 @ CGY 5 | CGY +1.5 CGY covered | 6.5 Over (7) | CGY +114 44.9% chance, upset |
| DET 4 @ EDM 3 | EDM -1.5 DET covered | 6.5 Over (7) | DET +142 39.6% chance, upset |
Lines are DraftKings' opening and closing numbers. Chance is the closing moneyline with the sportsbook's cut removed. Past results don't predict future ones.
Our picks for this day and how they did