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NFL and NBA and NHL odds recap for Sunday, October 25, 2026: what the lines got right and wrong
Road teams owned Sunday in the NFL, and the betting market spent much of the day leaning the wrong way. Only 2 of 12 home teams covered, meaning they beat the point spread the market set for them. The biggest shock was the Giants, who beat the Texans 27-21 on the moneyline, the bet on who wins outright. The Giants were +390 underdogs, and once the book's cut is removed, the closing line gave them a 19.6% chance. The market had also been moving toward Houston all week. The spread went from Texans -5.5 at open to -10 at close, and the Giants covered by 16.
NFL
Four underdogs won outright. Besides the Giants, the Dolphins beat the Jets 28-25 at +180 (a 34.3% chance), the Falcons beat the 49ers 29-20 at +120 (43.7%), and the Buccaneers beat the Panthers 43-13 at +142 (39.6%). Favorites went 8-4 straight up and 6-6 against the spread.
The Tampa Bay game was the day's most lopsided result against the market. The Bucs opened as 1.5-point favorites, but the line flipped so that Carolina closed as a 3-point favorite. Tampa Bay won by 30 and covered by 33. The Bengals were a similar story with a better outcome for the market. Baltimore opened as a 3.5-point favorite and closed as a 3-point underdog, a 6.5-point swing toward Cincinnati. The Bengals won 35-13 and covered by 19.
Three spreads were decided by half a point. Cleveland, whose line flipped from 2.5-point underdog to 2.5-point favorite, won 27-24 at Tennessee and covered by 0.5. The Colts lost 16-10 as 6.5-point underdogs and the Packers lost 20-17 as 3.5-point underdogs, so both covered by the same half point.
The total is the market's projection for combined points, and bettors pick over or under. Unders produced the biggest misses. Chiefs-Seahawks closed at 43.5 and finished 23-3 (26 points... ), under by 20.5, and Seattle covered by 14. Packers-Lions was the most striking case. The total climbed from 50.5 to 55.5 before kickoff, and the game produced 37 points, under by 18.5. Steelers-Saints at a neutral site finished 26 points against a 42.5 total. The misses went the other way too. Browns-Titans and Dolphins-Jets each had their totals lowered before kickoff, and each went over by 13.5. Overs finished 7-5 overall.
A line move is how far a spread or total shifts from open to close. Sunday's moves were mostly wrong. When the spread moved, the side it moved toward went 4-7. Moves toward the Texans, Panthers, Jets, Vikings, Lions, Raiders and Cardinals all failed. The moves toward the Falcons, Bengals, Browns and Steelers held up. Total moves were right 4 times out of 10.
NBA
The NBA was much friendlier to favorites, who went 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread. The one upset was Orlando winning 111-102 at New York at +220, a 30.0% chance. The Knicks' line had drifted from -7.5 to -6.5, and the Magic covered by 15.5.
Indiana posted the biggest cover, beating Brooklyn 136-109 as 5.5-point favorites to cover by 21.5. Minnesota covered by 19.5 in a 117-94 win over Toronto. The biggest miss on a favorite was in Oklahoma City. The Thunder's spread was pushed from -14.5 to -16.5, and they won by only 7 over the Clippers, who covered by 9.5. Detroit's line flipped from a 2.5-point underdog at Philadelphia to a 1.5-point favorite, and the Pistons won 106-93.
Pistons-76ers also had the day's biggest total miss in any sport. The total rose from 226.5 to 228.5, and the teams scored 199, under by 29.5. Lakers-Jazz went the other way, finishing 255 against a 237.5 total. Home teams went 1-6 against the spread, and spread moves went 3-1.
NHL
In hockey, the puck line acts as the spread, usually 1.5 goals. Nashville produced the night's upset with a 6-2 win over Colorado at +195, a 32.5% chance. Favorites otherwise went 4-1 straight up, but only 2-3 on the puck line, because one-goal wins aren't enough to cover. Florida won 3-2 at Chicago and Montreal won 2-1 at Winnipeg, and both home teams covered as 1.5-goal underdogs. Islanders-Stars produced the biggest total miss, with Dallas winning 6-3 for nine goals against a 5.5 total. Home teams went 4-1 on the puck line.
The long shots
The Giants winning at 19.6% was the least likely single result of the day. Taken together, the four NFL underdog winners were about a 1 in 86 chance. As a hypothetical parlay, which is one ticket that needs every leg to hit, they would have paid +7,205. Picking the winner of all 12 NFL games was about a 1 in 3,756 chance. The other leagues were far more predictable. Naming every NBA winner was a 1 in 41 chance (a +2,995 hypothetical parlay), and every NHL winner was 1 in 23 (+1,752). For the record, our own daily top 10 picks went 2-3.
By the numbers
NFL home teams went 2-10 against the spread.
The Buccaneers covered by 33 after their line flipped away from them.
Pistons-76ers went under the total by 29.5, the day's biggest total miss.
When the NFL spread moved, the side it moved toward went 4-7.
Three NFL spreads were decided by half a point.
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My web searches hit their limit before returning any results, so this story doesn't include any outside news, injuries or fan reaction. Every number comes from the data you provided. There's also a placeholder in the NFL totals paragraph to fix before publishing: "finished 23-3 (26 points... )" is wrong. The data shows Kansas City 3, Seattle 20, so the score is 20-3 and the total was 23 points.
Sources
Context beyond our own data comes from:
NFL: every game against the line
Favorites 8-4 straight up, 6-6 against the spread. Overs-unders 7-5. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT 16 vs NO 10 | NO +2.5 → +3 PIT covered | 42.5 Under (26) | PIT -162 59.3% chance |
| SF 20 @ ATL 29 | ATL +4.5 → +2.5 ATL covered | 47.5 → 49.5 Under (49) | ATL +120 43.7% chance, upset |
| CLE 27 @ TEN 24 | TEN -2.5 → +2.5 CLE covered | 40.5 → 37.5 Over (51) | CLE -135 55.1% chance |
| IND 10 @ MIN 16 | MIN -3 → -6.5 IND covered | 47.5 → 41.5 Under (26) | MIN -340 74.1% chance |
| MIA 28 @ NYJ 25 | NYJ -2.5 → -3.5 MIA covered | 41.5 → 39.5 Over (53) | MIA +180 34.3% chance, upset |
| TB 43 @ CAR 13 | CAR +1.5 → -3 TB covered | 45.5 → 44.5 Over (56) | TB +142 39.6% chance, upset |
| CIN 35 @ BAL 13 | BAL -3.5 → +3 CIN covered | 52.5 → 46.5 Over (48) | CIN -162 59.3% chance |
| NYG 27 @ HOU 21 | HOU -5.5 → -10 NYG covered | 43.5 Over (48) | NYG +390 19.6% chance, upset |
| DEN 30 @ ARI 16 | ARI +7.5 → +4.5 DEN covered | 43.5 → 44.5 Over (46) | DEN -238 67.5% chance |
| GB 17 @ DET 20 | DET -1.5 → -3.5 GB covered | 50.5 → 55.5 Under (37) | DET -192 63.1% chance |
| LAR 35 @ LV 21 | LV +7.5 → +3.5 LAR covered | 46.5 → 49.5 Over (56) | LAR -192 63.1% chance |
| KC 3 @ SEA 20 | SEA -3 SEA covered | 45.5 → 43.5 Under (23) | SEA -162 59.3% chance |
NBA: every game against the line
Favorites 6-1 straight up, 5-2 against the spread. Overs-unders 3-4. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAL 132 @ UTAH 123 | UTAH +6.5 LAL covered | 236.5 → 237.5 Over (255) | LAL -250 68.5% chance |
| IND 136 @ BKN 109 | BKN +5.5 IND covered | 232.5 → 231.5 Over (245) | IND -218 65.7% chance |
| ORL 111 @ NY 102 | NY -7.5 → -6.5 ORL covered | 225.5 → 224.5 Under (213) | ORL +220 30% chance, upset |
| TOR 94 @ MIN 117 | MIN -2.5 → -3.5 MIN covered | 231.5 → 228.5 Under (211) | MIN -166 60% chance |
| LAC 101 @ OKC 108 | OKC -14.5 → -16.5 LAC covered | 221.5 → 223.5 Under (209) | OKC -1350 89.3% chance |
| DET 106 @ PHI 93 | PHI -2.5 → +1.5 DET covered | 226.5 → 228.5 Under (199) | DET -130 54.3% chance |
| MEM 123 @ SAC 112 | SAC +3.5 MEM covered | 236.5 → 234.5 Over (235) | MEM -180 61.6% chance |
NHL: every game against the line
Favorites 4-1 straight up, 2-3 against the puck line. Overs-unders 2-3. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Puck line | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| FLA 3 @ CHI 2 | CHI +1.5 CHI covered | 6.5 Under (5) | FLA -198 63.7% chance |
| NYI 3 @ DAL 6 | DAL -1.5 DAL covered | 5.5 Over (9) | DAL -185 62.2% chance |
| MTL 2 @ WPG 1 | WPG +1.5 WPG covered | 5.5 Under (3) | MTL -122 52.6% chance |
| COL 2 @ NSH 6 | NSH +1.5 NSH covered | 6.5 Over (8) | NSH +195 32.5% chance, upset |
| MIN 4 @ VAN 2 | VAN +1.5 MIN covered | 6.5 Under (6) | MIN -205 64.5% chance |
Lines are DraftKings' opening and closing numbers. Chance is the closing moneyline with the sportsbook's cut removed. Past results don't predict future ones.
Our picks for this day and how they did