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NBA and NHL and College football odds recap for Wednesday, October 21, 2026: what the lines got right and wrong
Phoenix and Portland's betting lines pointed to a close game. Portland was a 3.5-point favorite at the close, and the market expected about 232.5 total points. The Trail Blazers won 124-83. That 41-point margin made it the most lopsided result on a Wednesday when the favorites mostly won, and won big.
NBA favorites went 9-2 straight up and 9-2 against the spread. "Against the spread" means winning by more than the number of points the betting line expects, which is called covering. Unders beat overs 7-4. The total is the market's guess at combined points, and the over or under is whether the game finished above or below it. Several games missed their totals by huge amounts. The favorites mostly won, but the closing lines often didn't come close to the actual scores.
NBA
Both upsets were close to coin flips. Atlanta won 132-125 at Orlando with a moneyline of +114. The moneyline is a straight bet on who wins, and +114 means a $100 bet pays $114. After removing the book's cut, that line gave the Hawks a 44.9% chance. Orlando had been a 2.5-point favorite, so Atlanta covered by 9.5.
The other upset was barely one. Minnesota closed at -102 and Miami at -118, so both teams were priced like favorites. Minnesota was the slight underdog, with a 48.3% chance. The Timberwolves won 131-106 and covered by 26.5. That was the third-biggest cover of the night, behind Portland's 37.5 and Toronto's 32.5. Toronto closed as a 10.5-point favorite against Chicago and won 135-92.
Other big covers came from the Clippers, who beat Sacramento 121-96 and covered by 19.5, Memphis, which covered by 18.5 against Utah, and the Lakers, who beat Golden State 127-105 and covered by 15.5. The closest call was Indiana, which won 123-120 at New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite and covered by half a point.
Two games missed their totals by far more than any others, in opposite directions. Phoenix and Portland combined for 207 points against a closing total of 232.5, under by 25.5. Atlanta and Orlando combined for 257 against 233.5, over by 23.5. Utah-Memphis also went well under, finishing 14.5 points below the line.
A line move is the change in the spread or total between when betting opens and when the game starts. When the spread moved, the side it moved toward went 6-4. The biggest move was in Utah at Memphis. Memphis opened as a 2.5-point underdog and closed as a 1.5-point favorite, a 4-point swing that flipped which team was favored. The Grizzlies won 123-103.
Not every move worked. The line moved 3 points toward Brooklyn, from +4.5 to +1.5, and Charlotte won 110-103. It moved 2 points toward Milwaukee, and Washington still covered by 7.5. It moved a point toward Phoenix, and then came the 41-point loss. Total moves did better, going in the right direction 7-4. Charlotte-Brooklyn's total dropped 6 points to 220.5, and the game finished at 213. Dallas-Houston's total rose 4 points to 230.5, and the game finished at 238.
NHL
The NHL had only two games, but it produced the least likely result of the day. Philadelphia won 3-1 at Buffalo as a +180 underdog, which the market priced as a 34.3% chance, or about 1 in 3. The puck line is hockey's version of the spread, usually set at 1.5 goals. Buffalo was -1.5, so the Flyers covered by 3.5. The total in that game rose from 5.5 to 6.5, and the teams scored only 4 goals, which made it the one total move that went wrong.
Florida and Ottawa was a true toss-up at -110 each way. Ottawa won 5-1 and covered the puck line by 2.5. The total of 5.5 went over by half a goal.
College football
New Mexico State won 30-24 at Sam Houston. The spread moved half a point toward the Aggies, from -2.5 to -3, and they covered by 3. They were the moneyline favorite at -162, a 59.3% chance. The total dropped from 47.5 to 46.5, but the teams scored 54, over by 7.5.
The long shots
Wednesday didn't have any huge underdog wins. The least likely result was Philadelphia's, at a 34.3% chance. The two NBA underdog wins were each close to even odds, but together they show how quickly probabilities stack up. The closing lines gave both of them winning about a 1 in 5 chance. As a hypothetical two-team parlay, used here only to show scale, they would have paid +324.
A bigger number came from the NBA favorites. They won nine of 11 games, but correctly picking the moneyline winner of all 11 games was still about a 1 in 325 chance. Getting every game right on a slate that size is unlikely even on a night when the favorites mostly win.
By the numbers
NBA favorites went 9-2 straight up and 9-2 against the spread.
Portland covered by 37.5 points against Phoenix, the biggest cover of the day, and the game went under its total by 25.5.
Atlanta and Orlando went over the total by 23.5 points, the only NBA over larger than 7.5.
Memphis went from a 2.5-point underdog at open to a 1.5-point favorite at close, then won by 20.
Philadelphia's win at Buffalo, given a 34.3% chance, was the day's least likely result.
NBA: every game against the line
Favorites 9-2 straight up, 9-2 against the spread. Overs-unders 4-7. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL 132 @ ORL 125 | ORL -2.5 ATL covered | 232.5 → 233.5 Over (257) | ATL +114 44.9% chance, upset |
| MIL 116 @ WSH 128 | WSH -6.5 → -4.5 WSH covered | 238.5 → 239.5 Over (244) | WSH -175 60.9% chance |
| MIN 131 @ MIA 106 | MIA -3.5 → -1.5 MIN covered | 236.5 → 240.5 Under (237) | MIN -102 48.3% chance, upset |
| CHA 110 @ BKN 103 | BKN +4.5 → +1.5 CHA covered | 226.5 → 220.5 Under (213) | CHA -120 52.2% chance |
| CHI 92 @ TOR 135 | TOR -8.5 → -10.5 TOR covered | 235.5 → 237.5 Under (227) | TOR -470 79.1% chance |
| UTAH 103 @ MEM 123 | MEM +2.5 → -1.5 MEM covered | 241.5 → 240.5 Under (226) | MEM -125 53.2% chance |
| IND 123 @ NO 120 | NO +4.5 → +2.5 IND covered | 240.5 → 238.5 Over (243) | IND -142 56.3% chance |
| DAL 110 @ HOU 128 | HOU -8.5 → -9.5 HOU covered | 226.5 → 230.5 Over (238) | HOU -425 77.7% chance |
| GS 105 @ LAL 127 | LAL -5.5 → -6.5 LAL covered | 231.5 → 233.5 Under (232) | LAL -230 66.9% chance |
| PHX 83 @ POR 124 | POR -4.5 → -3.5 POR covered | 236.5 → 232.5 Under (207) | POR -155 58.3% chance |
| SAC 96 @ LAC 121 | LAC -4.5 → -5.5 LAC covered | 230.5 → 226.5 Under (217) | LAC -185 62.2% chance |
NHL: every game against the line
Favorites 1-1 straight up, 1-1 against the puck line. Overs-unders 1-1. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Puck line | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI 3 @ BUF 1 | BUF -1.5 PHI covered | 5.5 → 6.5 Under (4) | PHI +180 34.3% chance, upset |
| FLA 1 @ OTT 5 | OTT -1.5 OTT covered | 5.5 Over (6) | OTT -110 50% chance |
College football: every game against the line
Favorites 1-0 straight up, 1-0 against the spread. Overs-unders 1-0. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| NMSU 30 @ SHSU 24 | SHSU +2.5 → +3 NMSU covered | 47.5 → 46.5 Over (54) | NMSU -162 59.3% chance |
Lines are DraftKings' opening and closing numbers. Chance is the closing moneyline with the sportsbook's cut removed. Past results don't predict future ones.
Our picks for this day and how they did