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NBA and NHL and College football odds recap for Tuesday, October 20, 2026: what the lines got right and wrong
The NHL slate turned the puck line upside down. A puck line is the hockey version of a point spread: the favorite is usually asked to win by two goals or more, and the underdog gets 1.5 goals of cushion. Favorites went 1-10 against that line on Tuesday, and home teams did the same, going 1-10. Five underdogs also won outright, which the closing lines gave about a 1 in 77 chance of happening together.
NHL
Favorites won straight up 6 times in 11 games, so the damage came from the margins. Covering means beating the spread, and almost no favorite did. TOR beat CBJ 6-2 as a +140 underdog, a result the closing line gave a 40.0% chance, and covered by 5.5 goals. TB, a coin-flip pick at -110 on both sides (50.0%), beat VGK 6-2 and also covered by 5.5. LA won 5-2 at WSH at +136 (40.7%) and covered by 4.5.
The most surprising winner by moneyline, the plain bet on who wins, was SJ. The Sharks won 4-3 at MTL at +185, which the market priced at 33.6%. DET lost at SEA 4-3, and SEA at +102 had a 47.4% chance.
Even the favorites that won mostly failed to cover. NYI, STL, DAL and EDM all won by a single goal and all missed the 1.5-goal line. Only CAR, a -285 favorite (71.0%), beat VAN 6-3, and VAN was the side getting 1.5 goals.
The total is the combined score both teams are expected to reach, and bettors choose over or under. Overs went 8-3. CAR and VAN combined for 9 goals against a 6.5 total, over by 2.5. WPG and STL scored only 3 against 5.5, under by 2.5.
Line moves were mixed. The line moved 3 toward NJ against COL, but NJ won 4-3 by one goal and did not cover. The puck line moves went 0-1 on the day. Total moves went 2-0: ANA and NYI dropped from 6.5 to 5.5 and finished at 5, and TB and VGK rose from 5.5 to 6.5 and finished at 8.
NBA
The NBA gave the oddest results of the day. Favorites went 1-2 straight up, and the favorite at close flipped from the open in two games. In BOS at DET, the line moved 4 points toward BOS, from DET -2.5 to DET +1.5. That move was wrong: DET won 121-113 and covered by 9.5, at +105 and a 46.8% chance.
PHI won at NY 106-100 as a +145 underdog (39.1%). The line had moved 1 point toward NY to -4.5, and PHI covered by 10.5. OKC won at SA 116-104. The line moved 3 toward OKC, from SA -1.5 to SA +1.5, which was the one move that was right, as OKC covered by 10.5.
The totals were off too. PHI and NY combined for 206 against a closing total of 231.5, under by 25.5. BOS and DET went to 234 against 220.5, over by 13.5, even though that total had been lowered by 4. Total moves went 0-3 in the wrong direction.
College football
MTSU upset FIU 26-23 at +320, a 22.8% chance, and covered by 13.5 after the line crept from FIU -10 to -10.5. MRSH beat USA 20-13 at +105 (46.8%). That game's line moved 1.5 toward MRSH, and the move was right. The total there went from 62.5 to 66.5 and the teams scored only 33, under by 33.5.
The other direction was just as extreme. MOST and DEL scored 99 points against a 54.5 total, over by 44.5, and DEL covered by 20 in a 61-38 win. Overs went 2-1.
The long shots
For scale, take a hypothetical parlay, one bet that pays only if every leg wins. Backing all five NHL underdog winners would have paid +6,125, and the closing lines gave that about a 1 in 77 chance. Picking every winner across the 11 NHL games had about a 1 in 2,060 chance.
The NBA's two underdog winners together had about a 1 in 5 chance and would have paid +402. All three NBA winners as one parlay would have paid +828, about a 1 in 11 chance. In college football, the two underdog winners together were about a 1 in 9 chance, and all three winners would have paid +1,267, about a 1 in 16 chance.
By the numbers
NHL favorites went 1-10 against the puck line.
NHL home teams also went 1-10 against the puck line.
NBA underdog winners: PHI at 39.1% and DET at 46.8%, together about a 1 in 5 chance.
MOST and DEL went over their total by 44.5 points, the largest total miss of the day.
Our own top 10 picks for the day went 3-7.
NBA: every game against the line
Favorites 1-2 straight up, 1-2 against the spread. Overs-unders 1-2. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOS 113 @ DET 121 | DET -2.5 → +1.5 DET covered | 224.5 → 220.5 Over (234) | DET +105 46.8% chance, upset |
| PHI 106 @ NY 100 | NY -3.5 → -4.5 PHI covered | 229.5 → 231.5 Under (206) | PHI +145 39.1% chance, upset |
| OKC 116 @ SA 104 | SA -1.5 → +1.5 OKC covered | 228.5 → 229.5 Under (220) | OKC -118 51.7% chance |
NHL: every game against the line
Favorites 6-5 straight up, 1-10 against the puck line. Overs-unders 8-3. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Puck line | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| SJ 4 @ MTL 3 | MTL -1.5 SJ covered | 6.5 Over (7) | SJ +185 33.6% chance, upset |
| COL 3 @ NJ 4 | NJ +1.5 → -1.5 COL covered | 6.5 Over (7) | NJ -115 51.1% chance |
| ANA 2 @ NYI 3 | NYI -1.5 ANA covered | 6.5 → 5.5 Under (5) | NYI -155 58.3% chance |
| LA 5 @ WSH 2 | WSH -1.5 LA covered | 5.5 Over (7) | LA +136 40.7% chance, upset |
| TOR 6 @ CBJ 2 | CBJ -1.5 TOR covered | 6.5 Over (8) | TOR +140 40% chance, upset |
| WPG 1 @ STL 2 | STL -1.5 WPG covered | 5.5 Under (3) | STL -135 55.1% chance |
| BOS 2 @ DAL 3 | DAL -1.5 BOS covered | 5.5 Under (5) | DAL -170 60.4% chance |
| MIN 3 @ EDM 4 | EDM -1.5 MIN covered | 6.5 Over (7) | EDM -125 53.2% chance |
| DET 3 @ SEA 4 | SEA +1.5 SEA covered | 6.5 Over (7) | SEA +102 47.4% chance, upset |
| CAR 6 @ VAN 3 | VAN +1.5 CAR covered | 6.5 Over (9) | CAR -285 71% chance |
| TB 6 @ VGK 2 | VGK -1.5 TB covered | 5.5 → 6.5 Over (8) | TB -110 50% chance, upset |
College football: every game against the line
Favorites 1-2 straight up, 1-2 against the spread. Overs-unders 2-1. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTSU 26 @ FIU 23 | FIU -10 → -10.5 MTSU covered | 45.5 → 46.5 Over (49) | MTSU +320 22.8% chance, upset |
| MOST 38 @ DEL 61 | DEL -3 DEL covered | 52.5 → 54.5 Over (99) | DEL -170 60.4% chance |
| USA 13 @ MRSH 20 | MRSH +3 → +1.5 MRSH covered | 62.5 → 66.5 Under (33) | MRSH +105 46.8% chance, upset |
Lines are DraftKings' opening and closing numbers. Chance is the closing moneyline with the sportsbook's cut removed. Past results don't predict future ones.
Our picks for this day and how they did