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NBA and NHL and College football odds recap for Wednesday, November 4, 2026: what the lines got right and wrong
Four NBA underdogs won outright on Wednesday night. The closing lines gave those four, taken together, about a 1 in 59 chance. The strangest line of the night came from Dallas at San Antonio, where our feed shows the point spread swinging 25 points between the open and the close.
The spread is the number of points the favorite has to win by. A team "covers" when it beats that number, or when it's the underdog and loses by less than it. A line move is how far that number shifted from when betting opened to when the game tipped off. On our feed, the Spurs opened as 12.5-point underdogs and closed as 12.5-point favorites, so the favorite flipped. San Antonio won 112-111. The Spurs got the win their -620 moneyline asked for, which the market priced at an 82.8% chance. Dallas, getting 12.5 points, covered by 11.5. In its preview, Yahoo Sports said Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving both missed these teams' first meeting and were expected to play this time. iHeart's injury report listed Dallas without Dereck Lively II (foot) and Max Christie (hip), and San Antonio without Tobias Harris (calf).
NBA
The moneyline is a straight bet on who wins. Minnesota was the biggest upset at +227, which the market rated a 29.4% chance. The Timberwolves won 117-107 at Houston and covered by 17.5. Indiana was next at +189 (33.2%), winning 107-103 at Memphis. Brooklyn, a +143 home underdog (39.5%), beat Charlotte 114-104. Philadelphia, at +120 (43.7%), won 112-106 at Detroit. Overall, favorites went 10-4 straight up but only 7-7 against the spread.
New York had the biggest cover. The Knicks beat Chicago 135-105 as 11.5-point favorites, covering by 18.5. Denver covered by 14.5 in a 128-109 win over Toronto, and Atlanta covered by 13.5 in a 120-105 win at Washington. At the other end, the Lakers won 116-103 at Sacramento as 12.5-point favorites and covered by just half a point. Boston, laying 12.5, beat Milwaukee by only 7.
The total is the combined score the market expects. Overs and unders split 7-7, but some totals missed by a lot. Portland and Phoenix closed at 227.5 and scored 251, going over by 23.5 in the Blazers' 132-119 win. Indiana and Memphis went the other way: the total closed at 227.5, they scored 210, and it finished 17.5 under. The Lakers-Kings total dropped 5 points, from 238.5 to 233.5, and the game still went 14.5 under. Cleveland at Oklahoma City went 13.5 over the 226.5 close in the Thunder's 124-116 win.
Line moves didn't help much. When the spread moved, the side it moved toward went 5-7, and total moves were right 6-6. Miami's line moved 2 points its way, from 4.5 to 6.5. The Heat won 117-116 at the Clippers, but the Clippers covered. The Milwaukee move went the right way: the Bucks' number shrank from 14.5 to 12.5 and they covered by 5.5. Minnesota's and Indiana's lines each moved a point toward them before they won outright.
NHL
The puck line is hockey's version of the spread, usually 1.5 goals. Ottawa was the only underdog to win, at +110 (a 45.7% chance), with a 2-1 win at Buffalo that went 3.5 goals under a 6.5 total. Calgary-Seattle also finished 3.5 under, and Calgary covered the puck line by losing 2-1. Florida covered by half a goal in its 5-3 win over Chicago. Los Angeles beat San Jose 7-2 and covered by 3.5. Both of those games went 2.5 over. Favorites went 3-1 straight up and 2-2 on the puck line.
College football
Every line move in Wednesday's three college games pointed the right way, going 3-0. The biggest came at the neutral-site game between Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan. Eastern opened as a 1.5-point favorite, Central closed as a 2.5-point favorite, and Central won 35-7, covering by 25.5. Ball State's line shrank from 4.5 to 2.5. The Cardinals lost 31-30 at UMass but covered, and the game finished 12.5 over its 48.5 total. Toledo was a -2800 favorite with a 93.1% chance. The Rockets won only 20-17 at Sacramento State, so the home team covered the 25.5-point spread by 22.5, and the game went 15.5 under.
The long shots
The single least likely result of the night was Minnesota's win at under 3 in 10. Together, the four NBA underdog wins were about a 1 in 59 shot. As a hypothetical four-team parlay, just for scale, they would have paid +4,952. Picking the winner of all 14 NBA games came in at about 1 in 2,659. Hockey and college football were tamer. Calling all four NHL winners was about a 1 in 10 chance, worth +713 as a hypothetical parlay. All three college winners was roughly 1 in 3, worth +201.
By the numbers
Portland and Phoenix's 251 points beat the closing total by 23.5, the biggest miss of the night.
When the NBA spread moved, the side it moved toward went 5-7.
NBA home teams went 6-8 against the spread.
Toledo, the night's biggest moneyline favorite at -2800, won by 3 and failed to cover 25.5.
Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan swapped favorite status before kickoff, and Central won by 28.
Sources
Context beyond our own data comes from:
- Spurs vs. Mavericks Prediction: Preview, Injury Report, Advantages, X-Factors - Yahoo Sports
- Mavericks vs. Spurs Injury Report
- It’s time for Basketball: San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks - Yahoo Sports
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets Time, TV & Stream
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets Injury Report
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets Predictions, Odds & Stats
NBA: every game against the line
Favorites 10-4 straight up, 7-7 against the spread. Overs-unders 7-7. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI 112 @ DET 106 | DET -1.5 → -2.5 PHI covered | 219.5 Under (218) | PHI +120 43.7% chance, upset |
| ATL 120 @ WSH 105 | WSH +1.5 ATL covered | 234.5 → 229.5 Under (225) | ATL -127 53.7% chance |
| MIL 102 @ BOS 109 | BOS -14.5 → -12.5 MIL covered | 225.5 → 222.5 Under (211) | BOS -567 81.7% chance |
| CHA 104 @ BKN 114 | BKN +2.5 → +3.5 BKN covered | 214.5 → 213.5 Over (218) | BKN +143 39.5% chance, upset |
| CHI 105 @ NY 135 | NY -12.5 → -11.5 NY covered | 232.5 → 233.5 Over (240) | NY -570 81.8% chance |
| IND 107 @ MEM 103 | MEM -6.5 → -5.5 IND covered | 230.5 → 227.5 Under (210) | IND +189 33.2% chance, upset |
| UTAH 113 @ NO 120 | NO -5.5 NO covered | 235.5 → 231.5 Over (233) | NO -201 64.2% chance |
| CLE 116 @ OKC 124 | OKC -2.5 → -3.5 OKC covered | 227.5 → 226.5 Over (240) | OKC -161 59.3% chance |
| MIN 117 @ HOU 107 | HOU -8.5 → -7.5 MIN covered | 223.5 → 219.5 Over (224) | MIN +227 29.4% chance, upset |
| TOR 109 @ DEN 128 | DEN -5.5 → -4.5 DEN covered | 231.5 → 230.5 Over (237) | DEN -191 63.1% chance |
| POR 132 @ PHX 119 | PHX +3.5 → +2.5 POR covered | 228.5 → 227.5 Over (251) | POR -148 57.2% chance |
| DAL 111 @ SA 112 | SA +12.5 → -12.5 DAL covered | 229.5 → 226.5 Under (223) | SA -620 82.8% chance |
| LAL 116 @ SAC 103 | SAC +11.5 → +12.5 LAL covered | 238.5 → 233.5 Under (219) | LAL -650 83.2% chance |
| MIA 117 @ LAC 116 | LAC +4.5 → +6.5 LAC covered | 233.5 Under (233) | MIA -216 65.7% chance |
NHL: every game against the line
Favorites 3-1 straight up, 2-2 against the puck line. Overs-unders 2-2. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Puck line | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| OTT 2 @ BUF 1 | BUF -1.5 OTT covered | 6.5 Under (3) | OTT +110 45.7% chance, upset |
| CHI 3 @ FLA 5 | FLA -1.5 FLA covered | 5.5 Over (8) | FLA -258 69.1% chance |
| SJ 2 @ LA 7 | LA -1.5 LA covered | 6.5 Over (9) | LA -166 60% chance |
| CGY 1 @ SEA 2 | SEA -1.5 CGY covered | 6.5 Under (3) | SEA -135 55.1% chance |
College football: every game against the line
Favorites 3-0 straight up, 1-2 against the spread. Overs-unders 1-2. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| BALL 30 @ MASS 31 | MASS -4.5 → -2.5 BALL covered | 48.5 Over (61) | MASS -142 56.3% chance |
| TOL 20 @ SAC 17 | SAC +26.5 → +25.5 SAC covered | 51.5 → 52.5 Under (37) | TOL -2800 93.1% chance |
| CMU 35 vs EMU 7 | EMU -1.5 → +2.5 CMU covered | 46.5 → 44.5 Under (42) | CMU -142 56.3% chance |
Lines are DraftKings' opening and closing numbers. Chance is the closing moneyline with the sportsbook's cut removed. Past results don't predict future ones.
Our picks for this day and how they did