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NBA and NHL and College football odds recap for Saturday, October 31, 2026: what the lines got right and wrong
Eight college football underdogs won outright on Saturday, and the market hadn't seen most of them coming. Going by DraftKings' closing lines, the chance of all eight winning was about 1 in 9,312. In the same window, Iowa State and Oklahoma State scored 100 points in a game the market had set at 58.5.
Some quick terms first. The moneyline is a straight bet on who wins. Our "chance" figure is the closing moneyline turned into a win probability after taking out the book's cut. A team covers when it beats the point spread, meaning it wins by more than it was favored by, or as an underdog loses by less than it was getting or wins outright. The total is the market's number for combined points, and bettors take the over or the under. A line move is how far a number shifted between the opening and closing lines.
College football
There were 47 games with lines. Favorites went 39-8 straight up but only 27-18 against the spread. Home teams went 30-15 against the spread, and unders beat overs 27-20.
Iowa State had the least likely win. The Cyclones closed at +295, a 24.3% chance, and beat Oklahoma State 51-49. They were getting 10 points, so they covered by 12. The game also blew past its total. That number rose from 56.5 to 58.5, and the teams still went over by 41.5, the biggest miss on the board.
Syracuse (+260, 26.6%) beat SMU 30-27, and Washington (+240, 28.2%) won 17-10 at Nebraska. Nebraska's spread dropped from -9.5 to -7.5, and Washington covered by 14.5. USC (+200, 31.9%) beat Ohio State 30-18. Fresno State (+185, 33.6%) beat Oregon State 38-22 for the biggest cover among the upsets, 22 points. South Carolina (+142, 39.6%) won 42-25 at Oklahoma and covered by 20.5. Coastal Carolina (+145, 39.1%) won 31-20 at Georgia State.
The Clemson game was the market's worst line move of the day. Florida State opened as a 1.5-point underdog and closed as a 4.5-point favorite, a 6-point swing that also flipped which team was favored. Clemson then won 36-24 at +170, a 35.5% chance. Overall, the side the spread moved toward went 22-16. Utah State's move went right: its line grew from -3.5 to -9.5, and it beat Colorado State by 17. Colorado's went 6.5 points from +3.5 to -3, and the Buffaloes beat Kansas State by exactly 3 for a push, meaning neither side won the spread bet.
Several totals missed badly in both directions. Texas State and Boise State went over by 27.5 in a 46-45 game. Appalachian State and Georgia Southern combined for 22 points against a 54.5 total, an under by 32.5. Temple and East Carolina finished 25.5 under even though their total rose 2 points. Florida and Georgia came in 21.5 under, and Washington and Nebraska 22.5 under. Total moves were right 20 times and wrong 21.
NBA
Favorites went 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread. The odd part was the line moves: all five games where the spread moved, the side it moved toward failed to cover. Memphis's line shrank from -10.5 to -7.5, and the Grizzlies beat Sacramento 136-105. Houston's dropped from -4.5 to -2.5, and the Rockets beat Oklahoma City 119-98. The Spurs moved from -11.5 to -12.5 and won by 10, so Minnesota covered by 2.5.
The night's only upset went against a move too. New Orleans went from +3.5 to +5.5, then beat Atlanta 121-99 at +164, a 36.3% chance. That was a 27.5-point cover. Total moves were right only once in five tries. The biggest total miss was Portland's 112-90 win at Utah, which finished 30.5 under 232.5. Cleveland and Milwaukee went 12.5 over.
NHL
Hockey's version of the spread is the puck line, usually 1.5 goals. Favorites went 7-3 straight up and 5-5 on the puck line. Nashville had the clearest upset, beating Tampa Bay 5-4 at +150, a 38.4% chance. St. Louis won 5-4 at Detroit as a slight underdog at -102 (48.3%). That game went 3.5 goals over a total of 5.5. Edmonton was technically the underdog at a 50.0% chance after the favorite flipped between open and close, and shut out the Islanders 4-0.
Buffalo had the only puck line move. Los Angeles opened at -1.5 and closed at +1.5 as Buffalo became the favorite. The Sabres won 3-2, but by one goal, so the Kings covered. Four games finished with 9 goals, all of them overs.
The long shots
Iowa State's 24.3% chance made it the least likely winner on Saturday's board, with Syracuse at 26.6% and Washington at 28.2%. A hypothetical parlay of all eight college underdog winners, shown only for scale, would have paid +661,644 at the 1 in 9,312 odds above. Picking the winner of all 47 college games had about a 1 in 1,611,785,642 chance.
Elsewhere the odds were less extreme. The NHL's three underdog winners together were about a 1 in 11 chance (+845 as a parlay), and picking every winner of all 10 games was about 1 in 327. In the NBA, picking every winner across seven games was about a 1 in 33 chance, or +2,332 as a parlay.
By the numbers
100: total points scored by Iowa State and Oklahoma State, 41.5 over the closing total.
0-5: NBA record of the side the spread moved toward.
6: points Florida State's spread moved toward the Seminoles before they lost by 12.
32.5: points Appalachian State and Georgia Southern finished under their total.
27.5: points New Orleans covered by, the biggest cover of the NBA night.
Sources
Context beyond our own data comes from:
NBA: every game against the line
Favorites 6-1 straight up, 5-2 against the spread. Overs-unders 4-3. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| POR 112 @ UTAH 90 | UTAH +6.5 POR covered | 232.5 Under (202) | POR -258 69.1% chance |
| PHI 109 @ CHA 104 | CHA +1.5 PHI covered | 216.5 → 211.5 Over (213) | PHI -118 51.7% chance |
| ATL 99 @ NO 121 | NO +3.5 → +5.5 NO covered | 239.5 Under (220) | NO +164 36.3% chance, upset |
| SAC 105 @ MEM 136 | MEM -10.5 → -7.5 MEM covered | 234.5 → 229.5 Over (241) | MEM -298 71.8% chance |
| CLE 136 @ MIL 111 | MIL +9.5 → +8.5 CLE covered | 236.5 → 234.5 Over (247) | CLE -290 71.4% chance |
| MIN 111 @ SA 121 | SA -11.5 → -12.5 MIN covered | 227.5 → 230.5 Over (232) | SA -575 81.7% chance |
| OKC 98 @ HOU 119 | HOU -4.5 → -2.5 HOU covered | 218.5 → 219.5 Under (217) | HOU -142 56.3% chance |
NHL: every game against the line
Favorites 7-3 straight up, 5-5 against the puck line. Overs-unders 5-5. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Puck line | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI 4 @ BOS 5 | BOS -1.5 CHI covered | 6.5 Over (9) | BOS -238 67.5% chance |
| STL 5 @ DET 4 | DET -1.5 STL covered | 5.5 Over (9) | STL -102 48.3% chance, upset |
| TB 4 @ NSH 5 | NSH +1.5 NSH covered | 6.5 Over (9) | NSH +150 38.4% chance, upset |
| EDM 4 @ NYI 0 | NYI +1.5 EDM covered | 6.5 Under (4) | EDM -110 50% chance, upset |
| BUF 3 @ LA 2 | LA -1.5 → +1.5 LA covered | 5.5 Under (5) | BUF -135 55.1% chance |
| OTT 5 @ SJ 1 | SJ +1.5 OTT covered | 6.5 Under (6) | OTT -148 57.2% chance |
| PIT 4 @ MTL 5 | MTL -1.5 PIT covered | 6.5 Over (9) | MTL -120 52.2% chance |
| TOR 4 @ VAN 2 | VAN +1.5 TOR covered | 6.5 Under (6) | TOR -192 63.1% chance |
| CBJ 1 @ DAL 3 | DAL -1.5 DAL covered | 5.5 Under (4) | DAL -185 62.2% chance |
| CGY 2 @ COL 5 | COL -1.5 COL covered | 6.5 Over (7) | COL -375 75.7% chance |
College football: every game against the line
Favorites 39-8 straight up, 27-18 against the spread. Overs-unders 20-27. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA 38 @ UNC 35 | UNC +14.5 → +13.5 UNC covered | 50.5 → 52.5 Over (73) | MIA -535 80.8% chance |
| OSU 18 @ USC 30 | USC +7.5 → +6.5 USC covered | 55.5 → 50.5 Under (48) | USC +200 31.9% chance, upset |
| FLA 8 vs UGA 27 | UGA -12.5 → -11.5 UGA covered | 53.5 → 56.5 Under (35) | UGA -410 77.2% chance |
| MINN 16 @ IU 23 | IU -22.5 → -20.5 MINN covered | 45.5 → 40.5 Under (39) | IU -1450 89.9% chance |
| ND 35 vs NAVY 13 | NAVY +28.5 → +30.5 NAVY covered | 53.5 → 54.5 Under (48) | ND -8000 95.8% chance |
| UTAH 49 @ CIN 25 | CIN +9.5 → +7 UTAH covered | 56.5 Over (74) | UTAH -270 70% chance |
| NEV 0 @ UCLA 27 | UCLA -23.5 → -22.5 UCLA covered | 48.5 → 43.5 Under (27) | UCLA -2100 92% chance |
| ASU 20 @ BYU 27 | BYU -17.5 ASU covered | 51.5 → 46.5 Over (47) | BYU -900 86.3% chance |
| MSST 3 @ TEX 31 | TEX -18.5 → -19.5 TEX covered | 52.5 → 50.5 Under (34) | TEX -1350 89.3% chance |
| AUB 15 @ MISS 45 | MISS -10.5 MISS covered | 53.5 → 58.5 Over (60) | MISS -410 77.2% chance |
| ARIZ 26 @ TTU 34 | TTU -7.5 → -4 TTU covered | 52.5 → 55.5 Over (60) | TTU -180 61.6% chance |
| UVA 7 @ WAKE 51 | WAKE -13.5 WAKE covered | 49.5 → 48.5 Over (58) | WAKE -575 81.7% chance |
| SMU 27 @ SYR 30 | SYR +12.5 → +8.5 SYR covered | 55.5 → 58.5 Under (57) | SYR +260 26.6% chance, upset |
| NU 26 @ ORE 34 | ORE -7.5 → -4 ORE covered | 50.5 → 47.5 Over (60) | ORE -180 61.6% chance |
| TXST 45 @ BOIS 46 | BOIS -12.5 → -10 TXST covered | 65.5 → 63.5 Over (91) | BOIS -410 77.2% chance |
| MIZ 34 @ ARK 10 | ARK +10.5 MIZ covered | 48.5 Under (44) | MIZ -425 77.7% chance |
| OKST 49 @ ISU 51 | ISU +9.5 → +10 ISU covered | 56.5 → 58.5 Over (100) | ISU +295 24.3% chance, upset |
| WIS 0 @ IOWA 30 | IOWA -4.5 → -2.5 IOWA covered | 39.5 → 36.5 Under (30) | IOWA -135 55.1% chance |
| CAL 10 @ NCSU 31 | NCSU -8.5 → -9.5 NCSU covered | 56.5 Under (41) | NCSU -325 73.4% chance |
| BC 2 @ DUKE 47 | DUKE -7 DUKE covered | 47.5 → 49.5 Under (49) | DUKE -278 70.5% chance |
| ILL 20 @ MD 17 | MD +3 Push | 52.5 → 54.5 Under (37) | ILL -142 56.3% chance |
| UAB 10 @ USF 30 | USF -9.5 → -7.5 USF covered | 46.5 → 43.5 Under (40) | USF -305 72.2% chance |
| BGSU 10 @ WMU 23 | WMU -15.5 → -14 BGSU covered | 43.5 → 44.5 Under (33) | WMU -625 82.7% chance |
| MICH 28 @ RUTG 21 | RUTG +14 → +16.5 RUTG covered | 47.5 Over (49) | MICH -800 85.2% chance |
| MRSH 36 @ ODU 23 | ODU +2.5 → +3 MRSH covered | 46.5 → 45.5 Over (59) | MRSH -142 56.3% chance |
| KSU 24 @ COLO 27 | COLO +3.5 → -3 Push | 48.5 → 47.5 Over (51) | COLO -166 60% chance |
| CCU 31 @ GAST 20 | GAST -6.5 → -3.5 CCU covered | 57.5 → 55.5 Under (51) | CCU +145 39.1% chance, upset |
| CONN 26 @ AFA 35 | AFA -4 → -2.5 AFA covered | 56.5 → 53.5 Over (61) | AFA -125 53.2% chance |
| TEM 9 @ ECU 17 | ECU -4.5 → -4 ECU covered | 49.5 → 51.5 Under (26) | ECU -185 62.2% chance |
| LT 35 @ USA 20 | USA +3.5 → +6 LT covered | 56.5 → 57.5 Under (55) | LT -230 66.9% chance |
| STAN 24 @ LOU 52 | LOU -21 → -22.5 LOU covered | 61.5 → 59.5 Over (76) | LOU -2100 92% chance |
| KU 16 @ TCU 22 | TCU -4.5 → -6.5 KU covered | 48.5 → 45.5 Under (38) | TCU -230 66.9% chance |
| CSU 14 @ USU 31 | USU -3.5 → -9.5 USU covered | 64.5 → 59.5 Under (45) | USU -520 80.4% chance |
| UTEP 7 @ NDSU 31 | NDSU -27.5 → -23.5 NDSU covered | 49.5 → 44.5 Under (38) | NDSU -2400 92.6% chance |
| FIU 10 @ LIB 49 | LIB -11.5 → -13.5 LIB covered | 44.5 → 45.5 Over (59) | LIB -550 81.2% chance |
| USM 35 @ ULM 21 | ULM +3 → +3.5 USM covered | 52.5 → 54.5 Over (56) | USM -175 60.9% chance |
| UNM 21 @ SJSU 16 | SJSU +14.5 → +15.5 SJSU covered | 42.5 → 43.5 Under (37) | UNM -750 84.7% chance |
| SC 42 @ OU 25 | OU -5.5 → -3.5 SC covered | 43.5 → 44.5 Over (67) | SC +142 39.6% chance, upset |
| PUR 17 @ PSU 31 | PSU -8.5 → -10 PSU covered | 52.5 → 55.5 Under (48) | PSU -375 75.7% chance |
| APP 3 @ GASO 19 | GASO -3.5 → -6 GASO covered | 54.5 Under (22) | GASO -225 66.4% chance |
| CLEM 36 @ FSU 24 | FSU +1.5 → -4.5 CLEM covered | 51.5 → 50.5 Over (60) | CLEM +170 35.5% chance, upset |
| WSU 20 @ SDSU 26 | SDSU -2.5 SDSU covered | 48.5 → 47.5 Under (46) | SDSU -148 57.2% chance |
| GT 11 @ PITT 34 | PITT -7 → -9.5 PITT covered | 52.5 → 54.5 Under (45) | PITT -340 74.1% chance |
| WASH 17 @ NEB 10 | NEB -9.5 → -7.5 WASH covered | 49.5 Under (27) | WASH +240 28.2% chance, upset |
| ARMY 22 @ MEM 49 | MEM -6 MEM covered | 56.5 → 59.5 Over (71) | MEM -218 65.7% chance |
| NIU 24 @ UNLV 31 | UNLV -24.5 → -21.5 NIU covered | 52.5 → 55.5 Under (55) | UNLV -2100 92% chance |
| ORST 22 @ FRES 38 | FRES +7 → +6 FRES covered | 56.5 → 57.5 Over (60) | FRES +185 33.6% chance, upset |
Lines are DraftKings' opening and closing numbers. Chance is the closing moneyline with the sportsbook's cut removed. Past results don't predict future ones.
Our picks for this day and how they did