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NFL and NHL odds recap for Monday, October 19, 2026: what the lines got right and wrong

Published October 21, 2026

Monday's biggest betting story came from the one NFL game, where San Francisco won but still lost for anyone who laid the points. The line grew to 7.5 points by kickoff, and the 49ers won by only 6. In the NHL, Philadelphia's upset of Colorado was the day's one real surprise.

NFL

San Francisco beat Washington 23-17 and was a heavy favorite on the moneyline (the straight-up price to win the game). At -410, the market gave the 49ers a 77.2% chance once the book's cut was removed. The favorite won, but the margin mattered more.

The spread is the margin of victory the market expects. A team "covers" when it beats that number. The line opened with San Francisco favored by 5.5 and closed at 7.5, a two-point move toward the 49ers. That is a line move: the number shifting between open and close. This one went the wrong way. San Francisco needed to win by 8 and won by 6, so Washington covered by 1.5 points. Had the line stayed at 5.5, the 49ers would have covered.

The total, which is the combined points from both teams that bettors wager over or under, missed by far more. It opened at 50.5 and rose to 51.5. The teams scored 40 points, so the game finished under by 11.5. That move was also wrong, and it was the largest total miss of the day in either league.

NHL

Hockey's version of the spread is the puck line, which is almost always 1.5 goals. Favorites went 3-1 straight up but only 2-2 against the puck line. Home teams did better, covering in three of four games.

The upset came in Philadelphia. Colorado closed at -250 on the moneyline, and the Flyers were +205, which implied a 31.5% chance. Philadelphia won 3-2. Because the Flyers were +1.5 on the puck line, they covered by 2.5, the biggest cover of the night. The total there opened at 5.5 and moved up to 6.5. The game finished with 5 goals, under by 1.5, so that move was wrong.

New York's 5-2 win over Anaheim was the favorite doing its job. The Rangers were -155, a 58.3% chance, and covered the -1.5 puck line by exactly 1.5 goals. The total moved from 5.5 to 6.5 and the game finished with 7, over by 0.5, so the move was right. That left total moves split 1-1 for the night.

Toronto beat San Jose 3-1 as a -148 favorite, a 57.2% chance. The Maple Leafs covered by just 0.5, since they won by 2 against a 1.5 line. The total stayed at 6.5 and the game finished under by 2.5 with 4 goals.

Utah's 5-4 win over Pittsburgh was the closest call. Utah was -185, a 62.2% chance, but won by one goal and failed to cover -1.5, so Pittsburgh covered by 0.5. The 9 goals cleared the 6.5 total by 2.5. That was the largest over of the night, but it was a miss of the same size as the under in Toronto.

The long shots

Philadelphia's win at 31.5% was the most unlikely result of the day. Odds like that happen a little under one time in three.

For scale, consider a hypothetical parlay, a single bet that pays only if every leg wins. Picking all four NHL moneyline winners would have been about a 1 in 15 chance and would have paid +1,195. Since Philadelphia was the one underdog in that group, the other three legs were favorites. The Flyers were what made the parlay pay so much.

The NFL's most unlikely result was not a winner at all. It was the 40 total points against a number of 51.5. That was a miss of 11.5 points, and it is a good reminder that the final score can land far from the market's number.

By the numbers

NFL favorites went 1-0 straight up but 0-1 against the spread.

NHL favorites went 3-1 straight up and 2-2 against the puck line.

Home teams covered in 3 of 4 NHL games, but not in the NFL game.

Overs and unders split 2-2 in the NHL, and the NFL game went under.

Our own top 10 picks for the day went 5-5.

NFL: every game against the line

Favorites 1-0 straight up, 0-1 against the spread. Overs-unders 0-1. DraftKings open → close.

NHL: every game against the line

Favorites 3-1 straight up, 2-2 against the puck line. Overs-unders 2-2. DraftKings open → close.

Lines are DraftKings' opening and closing numbers. Chance is the closing moneyline with the sportsbook's cut removed. Past results don't predict future ones.