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NFL and NHL odds recap for Sunday, October 18, 2026: what the lines got right and wrong
Six underdogs won in the NFL on Sunday, and the favorites could cover the spread in only 5 of 12 games.
The closing moneylines, which show each team's chance of winning with the book's cut removed, gave all six of those underdog winners about a 1 in 630 chance of happening together. As a one-ticket parlay, which is a hypothetical here and only for scale, they would have paid +48,788. The NFL's favorites went 6-6 straight up and 5-7 against the spread. Home teams went 4-8 against the spread.
NFL
A quick glossary. The moneyline is a bet on who wins outright. The spread is the margin the favorite must win by, and a team covers when it beats that number. The total is the combined score the market expects, and bettors take the over or the under. A line move is the shift from the opening number to the closing number.
The biggest shock was Arizona's 18-16 win over the Rams. Arizona closed at +600 on the moneyline, a 13.7% chance, against a spread of 13.5 points. Arizona covered by 15.5, the largest cover of the day. Houston's 34-31 win over Jacksonville, at a neutral site, was stranger in one way: the favorite flipped between open and close. Jacksonville opened as a 1.5-point underdog and closed a 2.5-point favorite. Houston won at +120 (43.7%) and covered by 5.5.
Tennessee beat Indianapolis 26-20 at +240 (28.2%) and covered by 12.5. Cleveland beat Baltimore 13-10 at +140 (40.0%). Green Bay beat Dallas 23-13 at +102 (47.4%) and covered by 11.5, even though Dallas had closed as a slight favorite. New Orleans beat the Giants 34-27 at -108 (49.6%), a near coin flip in which the Giants were the slight closing favorite.
Line moves went 7-4 for the side the spread moved toward. The biggest was Carolina-Philadelphia, which moved 9.5 points toward Carolina, from Philadelphia -6.5 to Philadelphia +3. Carolina won 25-14 and covered by 8. Pittsburgh's line moved 4 points its way, and the Steelers won 26-19 and covered by 4.5. Kansas City's moved 5 points toward the Chiefs, and they covered by 8.5 in a 22-6 win over the Chargers.
Four moves were wrong. Houston's moved 4 points toward Jacksonville and missed. Tennessee's moved 3 points toward Indianapolis, and the Titans covered by 12.5. Dallas's moved 4.5 toward the Cowboys, and Green Bay covered by 11.5. Chicago's moved 1.5 toward Atlanta, and the Bears covered by 6.5 in a 31-23 win.
Totals split 7-5 toward the over, but the misses were huge. Houston-Jacksonville finished at 65 against a total of 42.5, over by 22.5. Dallas-Green Bay finished at 36 against 54.5, under by 18.5. Baltimore-Cleveland (23 points, under by 17.5) and Arizona-Rams (34 points, under by 17.5) were nearly as lopsided. The Arizona total had moved up from 46.5 to 51.5. Overall, the direction of total moves was right 7-4.
The tightest result was Jets-Patriots. New England won 26-19 but closed -7.5, so the Jets covered by just 0.5.
NHL
The NHL's version of the spread is the puck line, usually 1.5 goals. Both favorites lost against it. Minnesota beat Columbus 2-1 as a -1.5 puck line favorite, but Columbus covered by 0.5. Calgary beat Carolina 3-2 at +170 (35.5%), the day's lone NHL upset, and covered by 2.5.
Both games finished under the total. Columbus-Minnesota ended with 3 goals against 6.5, under by 3.5. Carolina-Calgary's total moved up from 5.5 to 6.5, and the game finished at 5, under by 1.5, so that move was wrong.
The long shots
Arizona's win was the least likely single result at 13.7%. Next came Tennessee at 28.2%, Calgary at 35.5% and Cleveland at 40.0%.
The better measure is how the day stacked up. The six NFL underdogs together had about a 1 in 630 chance. Picking all 12 NFL moneyline winners had about a 1 in 9,582 chance.
By the numbers
NFL favorites went 6-6 straight up and 5-7 against the spread.
Home NFL teams covered in only 4 of 12 games.
Spread moves toward a side went 7-4 in the NFL, and total moves went 7-4.
NHL favorites went 0-2 against the puck line, and both NHL games finished under the total.
Our own daily top 10 picks went 3-7.
NFL: every game against the line
Favorites 6-6 straight up, 5-7 against the spread. Overs-unders 7-5. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Spread | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU 34 vs JAX 31 | JAX +1.5 → -2.5 HOU covered | 41.5 → 42.5 Over (65) | HOU +120 43.7% chance, upset |
| CHI 31 @ ATL 23 | ATL +3 → +1.5 CHI covered | 47.5 → 50.5 Over (54) | CHI -115 51.1% chance |
| BAL 10 @ CLE 13 | CLE +6.5 → +3 CLE covered | 44.5 → 40.5 Under (23) | CLE +140 40% chance, upset |
| TEN 26 @ IND 20 | IND -3.5 → -6.5 TEN covered | 48.5 → 43.5 Over (46) | TEN +240 28.2% chance, upset |
| NYJ 19 @ NE 26 | NE -9.5 → -7.5 NYJ covered | 42.5 Over (45) | NE -345 74.4% chance |
| NO 34 @ NYG 27 | NYG -2.5 → +1.5 NO covered | 45.5 → 46.5 Over (61) | NO -108 49.6% chance, upset |
| CAR 25 @ PHI 14 | PHI -6.5 → +3 CAR covered | 43.5 → 39.5 Under (39) | CAR -162 59.3% chance |
| PIT 26 @ TB 19 | TB -1.5 → +2.5 PIT covered | 45.5 → 37.5 Over (45) | PIT -135 55.1% chance |
| ARI 18 @ LAR 16 | LAR -13.5 ARI covered | 46.5 → 51.5 Under (34) | ARI +600 13.7% chance, upset |
| LAC 6 @ KC 22 | KC -2.5 → -7.5 KC covered | 46.5 → 41.5 Under (28) | KC -425 77.7% chance |
| BUF 33 @ LV 30 | LV +6.5 → +5.5 LV covered | 47.5 → 54.5 Over (63) | BUF -245 68.1% chance |
| DAL 13 @ GB 23 | GB -3 → +1.5 GB covered | 51.5 → 54.5 Under (36) | GB +102 47.4% chance, upset |
NHL: every game against the line
Favorites 1-1 straight up, 0-2 against the puck line. Overs-unders 0-2. DraftKings open → close.
| Final | Puck line | Total | Moneyline winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ 1 @ MIN 2 | MIN -1.5 CBJ covered | 6.5 Under (3) | MIN -192 63.1% chance |
| CAR 2 @ CGY 3 | CGY +1.5 CGY covered | 5.5 → 6.5 Under (5) | CGY +170 35.5% chance, upset |
Lines are DraftKings' opening and closing numbers. Chance is the closing moneyline with the sportsbook's cut removed. Past results don't predict future ones.
Our picks for this day and how they did