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Best bets for Friday, October 23, 2026

Published October 22, 2026

Friday's board leans heavily on the NBA. Eight of the top ten picks are basketball, and the other two are ACC college football games. The model mostly likes player-prop unders, plus a late-night home underdog in Palo Alto and Milwaukee in an afternoon game against Chicago. As always, expected profit is what you'd average over many bets like these. It isn't a forecast of what happens tonight.

Stanford to beat NC State (+215, DraftKings)

The top pick is Stanford to win outright at +215 at DraftKings. That means a $100 bet profits $215 if the Cardinal win. Kickoff is 10:30 PM ET, and ESPN's game page lists it as an ACC matchup at Stanford Stadium with NC State favored. Our estimate draws on 893 look-alike games and comes to +$4.42 per $100. The idea is simple: blending those past games with the market price, our numbers give Stanford a slightly better chance than +215 implies. The market may be leaning a little too hard toward the favorite. Most nights a bet like this loses. The case for it is that when it wins, the payout more than makes up for the losses over time.

Paul George under 2.5 threes (+132, FanDuel)

Next is Paul George making two or fewer three-pointers, at +132 at FanDuel, with tipoff at 7:00 PM ET. At +$9.26 per $100, it's tied for the biggest expected profit on the list. It's built on 180 look-alike games. Because the under pays better than even money, the book thinks George is more likely than not to make three or more. Our look-alikes don't see it that way, and that gap is the edge. The sample is much smaller than Stanford's, though, so the estimate is less certain.

Jayson Tatum under 2.5 threes (+132, FanDuel)

Jayson Tatum's line looks just like George's: under 2.5 threes at +132 at FanDuel, 7:00 PM ET, +$9.26 per $100, 180 look-alike games. Again, the book makes the under the underdog, and the model thinks that price is a bit generous. Keep in mind that both picks rest on the same reasoning about how three-point props are priced tonight. If the model is wrong about that, both could lose together.

The rest of the list starts with Duke at Virginia over 47.5 points at -105 at DraftKings, at +$3.54 per $100 from 1,584 look-alike games. Jalen Brunson under 6.5 assists at -114 at FanDuel shows +$6.24 from 444 games. Paul George appears twice more, both at DraftKings: over 4.5 rebounds at +122 (+$5.31, 1,036 games) and under 2.5 assists at +132 (+$3.67, 239 games). Karl-Anthony Towns under 10.5 rebounds at +101 at DraftKings rates +$2.58 from 400 games. The two Milwaukee picks against Chicago, which tip at 4:00 PM ET, have the most look-alike games behind them at 2,220 each. Their edges are thin, though: Bucks to win at -115 (+$1.66) and Bucks -1.5 at -108 (+$0.76), both at DraftKings. They also overlap heavily, since a Milwaukee win by two or more cashes both.

The top 10 bets on our NBA, college football, NHL board for Friday, October 23, 2026, ranked by expected profit per $100 after the sportsbook's cut. Each one is priced from how look-alike past games turned out (similar line, home or away, rest), at the best price we found across up to 11 sportsbooks.

Sources

Context beyond our own data comes from:

• NC State vs. Stanford (Oct 23, 2026) Live Score - ESPN
• NC State vs Stanford Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Week 8 2026
• NC State vs. Stanford 10/23/26 - Stream the Game Live - Watch ESPN

Profit per $100 is the expected long-run average, not a promise: even the best edges lose often. Our full track record shows how the method has done over eight NFL seasons.